CMIP6 climate models imply high committed warming.
CMIP6 climate models imply high committed warming.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Nijsse FJMM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huntingford C;Williamson MS;Nijsse FJMM
目前的气候变化是非常短暂的，地球距离热平衡还有很大的距离。这一公认的发现主要是由于目前进入海洋的热能流量很大。如果全球大气温室气体的源和汇都为零，这就等于说它们的浓度随后不变。这种政策将对应于通过陆地和海洋CO2的减少以及任何碳捕获和储存方法的实施来完全抵消剩余的排放量。第五届政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）报告将其定义为“恒定成分承诺”（柯林斯等人，2013年）的报告。在大气温室气体固定的情况下，地球将进入平衡状态，届时陆地和海洋的二氧化碳抵消将趋于零。因此，如果没有任何有意的CCS实施，温室气体总排放量将需要可以忽略不计。然而，平衡状态也意味着热稳定性，全球变暖不变。在相同的温室气体水平下，观测到的瞬时行星响应和平衡气候状态之间的差异抵消了这种额外的变暖。我们分析了历史和当前温室气体浓度的额外变暖，利用耦合模型相互比较项目v6（CMIP 6）中新ESM的ECS值。根据Taylor等人的强迫协议，利用ESM模拟的CMIP 5集合探索了目前全球变暖滞后于平衡状态的问题。（2012年）。这些计算提高了前景，即使是目前的大气温室气体水平也会导致近地表全球变暖，可能比工业化前水平高出1.5 C以上（在陆地上甚至更高; Huntingford和Mercado，2016年）。随着国际上对最大限度地减少全球排放的讨论日益增多，在某些情况下，这可能相当于不变的大气温室气体水平，人们对稳定的全球变暖水平的大小重新产生了兴趣。在这里，我们进行了一个简单但说明性的分析，以定义这种滞后，利用最近的CMIP 6 ESM的ECS值，通过建立的方法（格雷戈里等人，2004年）。网址：//doi. org/10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5
Current climate change is highly transient, and Earth is at a significant distance from thermal equilibrium. This well-established finding is predominantly due to the large flux of thermal energy currently entering the oceans. If globally the sources and sinks of atmospheric GHGs were to become zero, this is identical to stating that their concentrations are subsequently invariant. Such a policy would correspond to a full offset of the remaining emissions by both land and ocean CO2 drawdown, as well as any implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) methods. The 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report defines this as a “constant composition commitment”(Collins et al., 2013). With fixed atmospheric GHGs, the planet will move to an equilibrium state, at which time land and ocean CO2 offsets will tend to zero. Hence, without any deliberate CCS implementation, gross GHG emissions will then need to be negligible. However, an equilibrium state also implies thermal stability too, with global warming invariant. It is the difference between the observed transient planetary response and equilibrium climate state for the same GHG levels that characterise this extra warming. We analyse this additional warming for historical and current GHG concentrations, utilising ECS values for the new ESMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v6 (CMIP6). The current lag in global warming behind an equilibrium state has been explored with the CMIP5 ensemble of ESM simulations, following the forcing protocol of Taylor et al.(2012). These calculations raise the prospect that even current atmospheric GHG levels commit to near-surface global warming likely greater than 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels (and even higher over land; Huntingford and Mercado, 2016). With rising international discussion of minimising global emissions, which in some circumstances could correspond to invariant atmospheric GHG levels, there is renewed interest in the magnitude of stabilised global warming levels. Here, we perform a simplistic but illustrative analysis to define this lag, utilising the ECS values of the recent CMIP6 ESMs derived by established methods (Gregory et al., 2004). https://doi. org/10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Huntingford C;Mercado LM
通讯作者：
Mercado LM
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Li, Chao;von Storch, Jin-Song;Marotzke, Jochem
通讯作者：
Marotzke, Jochem
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Gregory, JM;Ingram, WJ;Williams, KD
通讯作者：
Williams, KD
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich;Rogelj, Joeri;Hare, William
通讯作者：
Hare, William
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Gregory, J. M.;Andrews, T.;Webb, M. J.
通讯作者：
Webb, M. J.