Exploring the influence of short-term temperature patterns on temperature-related mortality: a case-study of Melbourne, Australia.
Exploring the influence of short-term temperature patterns on temperature-related mortality: a case-study of Melbourne, Australia.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12940-016-0193-1
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发表时间：
2016-11-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Nicholls N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pearce JL;Hyer M;Hyndman RJ;Loughnan M;Dennekamp M;Nicholls N
多项研究已确定环境温度与死亡率之间的关联；然而，温度行为的几个特征及其对健康的影响仍未得到解决。我们获得了 1999 年至 2006 年期间老年人（65岁以上）非意外全因死亡率数据的每日计数以及澳大利亚墨尔本的相应气象数据。然后，我们通过量化由 1 至 30 天的预先指定窗口指定的时期内的温度变化率来表征环境温度发展的时间行为。最后，我们在泊松回归的框架内评估当天温度与死亡率之间的关联，并包括我们的温度轨迹变量，以评估关联是否因给定每日温度演变的性质而改变。我们发现短期死亡风险与日平均气温之间存在显着正相关，因为与参考温度高于 90% 的日子相比，温度高于 25-75% 的日子死亡风险增加 6%。此外，我们发现与每日温度相关的死亡风险因前十二天温度轨迹的性质而异，死亡率峰值出现在高温和稳定轨迹期间以及气温升高和轨迹增加期间。我们的方法为增进对复杂温度健康关联的理解提供了一种有前景的工具。这些发现表明，次月温度变化的性质在温度对死亡率的严重影响中发挥着重要作用；然而，建议进一步研究。
Several studies have identified the association between ambient temperature and mortality; however, several features of temperature behavior and their impacts on health remain unresolved. We obtain daily counts of nonaccidental all-cause mortality data in the elderly (65 + years) and corresponding meteorological data for Melbourne, Australia during 1999 to 2006. We then characterize the temporal behavior of ambient temperature development by quantifying the rates of temperature change during periods designated by pre-specified windows ranging from 1 to 30 days. Finally, we evaluate if the association between same day temperature and mortality in the framework of a Poisson regression and include our temperature trajectory variables in order to assess if associations were modified by the nature of how the given daily temperature had evolved. We found a positive significant association between short-term mortality risk and daily average temperature as mortality risk increased 6 % on days when temperatures were above the 90th percentile as compared to days in the referent 25–75th. In addition, we found that mortality risk associated with daily temperature varied by the nature of the temperature trajectory over the preceding twelve days and that peaks in mortality occurred during periods of high temperatures and stable trajectories and during periods of increasing higher temperatures and increasing trajectories. Our method presents a promising tool for improving understanding of complex temperature health associations. These findings suggest that the nature of sub-monthly temperature variability plays a role in the acute impacts of temperature on mortality; however, further studies are suggested.
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影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Hajat, Shakoor;Vardoulakis, Sotiris;Eggen, Bernd
通讯作者：
Eggen, Bernd
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Anderson GB;Bell ML
通讯作者：
Bell ML
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Kenny, Glen P.;Yardley, Jane;Jay, Ollie
通讯作者：
Jay, Ollie
DOI：
10.1097/ede.0b013e318190ee08
发表时间：
2009-03
期刊：
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Anderson BG;Bell ML
通讯作者：
Bell ML
分析复杂产品系统的综合成本计划风险 R
影响因子：
--
作者：
Xu, Zhe;Yu, Jing;Li, Hongbo
通讯作者：
Li, Hongbo