The implications of changing education distributions for life expectancy gradients.
The implications of changing education distributions for life expectancy gradients.
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改变教育分布对预期寿命梯度的影响。
DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113712
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发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Martikainen P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hendi AS;Elo IT;Martikainen P
最近的研究表明，不同群体之间教育分布的变化正在影响对死亡率教育梯度的估计。我们使用美国和芬兰40年的数据来探索这一论断。我们的分析基于我们的新发现：相对教育和相对死亡率之间的负对数关系。这种关系适用于多个年龄组，两个性别，两个非常不同的国家，以及跨越四十年的时间段。该模型的不平等参数表明，随着时间的推移，相对死亡率差异不断增加。我们利用这些发现开发了一种方法，使我们能够计算教育分布中任何给定部分的预期寿命（例如，教育五分位数）。我们将这种方法应用于芬兰和美国的数据来计算预期寿命梯度，并根据教育分布的变化进行调整。在芬兰，1971年至2010年期间，受教育程度最高和最低的五分之一人口之间的预期寿命按分布调整后的教育差异，男性增加了两年，女性保持稳定。对美国的类似分布调整估计表明，在20世纪80年代至21世纪初，非西班牙裔白色男性和非西班牙裔白色女性的预期寿命教育差距分别增加了3.3年和3.0年。就男性和女性而言，在美国，最高和最低教育五分位数之间的差异分别小于最高和最低教育类别之间的差异，分别为18%和39%，在芬兰为39%和100%。如果芬兰和美国人口死亡率的相对不平等参数保持在最早时期的值不变，那么由于总体死亡率下降，教育水平最高和最低的五分之一人群之间的预期寿命差异将会适度下降。研究结果表明，教育扩展可能会使对预期寿命教育差异趋势的估计产生偏差。
Recent research has proposed that shifting education distributions across cohorts are influencing estimates of educational gradients in mortality. We use data from the United States and Finland covering four decades to explore this assertion. We base our analysis around our new finding: a negative logarithmic relationship between relative education and relative mortality. This relationship holds across multiple age groups, both sexes, two very different countries, and time periods spanning four decades. The inequality parameters from this model indicate increasing relative mortality differentials over time. We use these findings to develop a method that allows us to compute life expectancy for any given segment of the education distribution (e.g., education quintiles). We apply this method to Finnish and American data to compute life expectancy gradients that are adjusted for changes in the education distribution. In Finland, these distribution-adjusted education differentials in life expectancy between the top and bottom education quintiles have increased by two years for men, and remained stable for women between 1971 and 2010. Similar distribution-adjusted estimates for the U.S. suggest that educational disparities in life expectancy increased by 3.3 years for non-Hispanic white men and 3.0 years for non-Hispanic white women between the 1980s and 2000s. For men and women, respectively, these differentials between the top and bottom education quintiles are smaller than the differentials between the top and bottom education categories by 18% and 39% in the U.S. and by 39% and 100% in Finland. Had the relative inequality parameters of mortality governing the Finnish and U.S. populations remained constant at their earliest period values, the difference in life expectancy between the top and bottom education quintiles would – because of overall mortality reductions – have declined moderately. The findings suggest that educational expansion may bias estimates of trends in educational differences in life expectancy upwards.
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