Reconstructing the emergence of a lethal infectious disease of wildlife supports a key role for spread through translocations by humans.
Reconstructing the emergence of a lethal infectious disease of wildlife supports a key role for spread through translocations by humans.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2016.0952
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发表时间：
2016-09-28
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Nichols RA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Price SJ;Garner TW;Cunningham AA;Langton TE;Nichols RA
尽管野生动物疾病对生物多样性和人类健康产生了广泛的影响，但很少有人重建这些疾病的出现。这在很大程度上是由于缺乏结构化和健壮的时空数据集。我们克服了通过使用公民科学项目的数据和建立野生动物病原体(感染两栖动物的兰纳病毒属)传播的时空模型来获得适当信息的后勤问题。我们评估了英国疾病报告迅速增加的三个主要假设：疫情报告更加频繁，气候变化改变了宿主和以前广泛传播的病原体之间的相互作用，以及疾病的出现是由于一种新病原体的空间传播。我们的分析以附近池塘的局部传播为特征，这与两栖动物的传播一致，但也揭示了在人口密度较高的地区额外暴发率上升的非常显著的趋势-表明人类活动也在传播病毒。病原体基因组的系统发育分析支持至少两个独立引入英国的推断。综上所述，这些结果有力地表明，人类反复将雷诺病毒从其他国家和英国池塘之间转移到英国，因此提出了潜在的控制措施。
There have been few reconstructions of wildlife disease emergences, despite their extensive impact on biodiversity and human health. This is in large part attributable to the lack of structured and robust spatio-temporal datasets. We overcame logistical problems of obtaining suitable information by using data from a citizen science project and formulating spatio-temporal models of the spread of a wildlife pathogen (genus Ranavirus, infecting amphibians). We evaluated three main hypotheses for the rapid increase in disease reports in the UK: that outbreaks were being reported more frequently, that climate change had altered the interaction between hosts and a previously widespread pathogen, and that disease was emerging due to spatial spread of a novel pathogen. Our analysis characterized localized spread from nearby ponds, consistent with amphibian dispersal, but also revealed a highly significant trend for elevated rates of additional outbreaks in localities with higher human population density—pointing to human activities in also spreading the virus. Phylogenetic analyses of pathogen genomes support the inference of at least two independent introductions into the UK. Together these results point strongly to humans repeatedly translocating ranaviruses into the UK from other countries and between UK ponds, and therefore suggest potential control measures.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Hitchings, SP;Beebee, TJC
通讯作者：
Beebee, TJC
DOI：
10.1155/2013/571939
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
International journal of evolutionary biology
影响因子：
--
作者：
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作者：
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影响因子：
64.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
Daszak P