Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty.
Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Liu, Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim, Young-Min;Zhou, Ying;Gao, Yang;Fu, Joshua S.;Johnson, Brent A.;Huang, Cheng;Liu, Yang
由于缺乏高分辨率的模式模拟，特别是在最新的温室气体排放途径代表性浓度途径（RCP）下，由于气候变化导致的空气污染相关健康影响的不确定性的空间格局很少被研究。我们估计了未来对流层臭氧（O3）和相关的超额死亡率，并评估了相关的不确定性，在美国大陆的RCP。基于动态降尺度气候模式的模拟，我们计算了未来（2057-2059年）和基准年（2001-2004年）之间的12 km分辨率的O3水平的变化，在低到中等排放情景（RCP 4.5）和化石燃料密集型排放情景（RCP 8.5）。然后，我们估计了归因于O3变化的超额死亡率。最后，我们分析了超额死亡率估计对输入变量的敏感性和超额死亡率估计的不确定性，使用蒙特卡罗模拟。考虑到气候变化和减排，美国大陆的O3相关过早死亡估计为1，312例死亡/年（95%置信区间（CI）：427至2，198）和-2，118例死亡/年（95% CI：-3，021至-1，216）。与O3相关的超额死亡率估计的不确定性主要是由RCP排放途径引起的。由于气候和排放变化对O3的综合影响以及相关的不确定性，超额死亡率估计在空间上有很大差异，最有影响力的输入变量也是如此。空间分辨数据对于制定有效的社区一级减缓和适应政策至关重要。
The spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057–2059) and base years (2001–2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1,312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2,198) and −2,118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95% CI: −3,021 to −1,216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph7072866
发表时间：
2010-07
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chang HH;Zhou J;Fuentes M
通讯作者：
Fuentes M
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Gao Y;Fu JS;Drake JB;Lamarque JF;Liu Y
通讯作者：
Liu Y
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Riahi, Keywan;Rao, Shilpa;Rafaj, Peter
通讯作者：
Rafaj, Peter
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Gent, Peter R.;Danabasoglu, Gokhan;Zhang, Minghua
通讯作者：
Zhang, Minghua
在气候变化下评估与臭氧相关的健康影响。
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Knowlton, Kim;Rosenthal, Joyce E;Hogrefe, Christian;Lynn, Barry;Gaffin, Stuart;Goldberg, Richard;Rosenzweig, Cynthia;Civerolo, Kevin;Ku, Jia-Yeong;Kinney, Patrick L
通讯作者：
Kinney, Patrick L