Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States.
Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1306670
复制
发表时间：
2014-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Liu Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu J;Zhou Y;Gao Y;Fu JS;Johnson BA;Huang C;Kim YM;Liu Y
背景：预计未来气候变化将影响与热有关的死亡率。然而，对未来热浪造成的超额死亡率的估计存在很大的不确定性，而且没有在最新的温室气体排放情景下进行预估。目的：我们在两种代表性浓度路径（rcp）下估计了美国东部（约1,700个县）未来的热浪死亡率，并调查了不确定性的来源。方法：利用2057-2059年的逐小时温度动态缩减预测，我们预测了使用四个热浪指标定义的热浪日数，并估计了可归因于它们的超额死亡率。我们使用方差分解方法对超额死亡率估计的不确定性来源进行了分配。结果：估计表明，2057-2059年，美国东部热浪造成的超额死亡率将导致200-7,807人死亡/年（平均2,379人死亡/年）。RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的平均超额死亡率预测分别为每年1,403人和3,556人。在南部各州和东部沿海地区（不包括缅因州），超额死亡率相对较高。不确定性的主要来源是热浪日与非热浪日死亡率的相对风险估计、RCP情景和热浪定义。结论：未来热浪造成的死亡风险可能比2002-2004年报告的死亡风险高一个数量级，在RCP8.5情景下，研究区域每年预计有数千人死于热浪。县级热死亡率估算的巨大空间变异性表明，应根据空间分辨率数据制定有效的减缓和适应措施。引用本文：吴健，周勇，高勇，傅建军，Johnson BA，黄超，金彦明，刘勇。2014。未来热浪对美国东部死亡率影响的估计和不确定性分析。环境卫生展望122:10-16；http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306670
Background: Climate change is anticipated to influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, estimates of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves are subject to large uncertainties and have not been projected under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated future heat wave mortality in the eastern United States (approximately 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and investigated sources of uncertainty. Methods: Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections for 2057–2059, we projected heat wave days that were defined using four heat wave metrics and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. We apportioned the sources of uncertainty in excess mortality estimates using a variance-decomposition method. Results: Estimates suggest that excess mortality attributable to heat waves in the eastern United States would result in 200–7,807 deaths/year (mean 2,379 deaths/year) in 2057–2059. Average excess mortality projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were 1,403 and 3,556 deaths/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern states and eastern coastal areas (excluding Maine). The major sources of uncertainty were the relative risk estimates for mortality on heat wave versus non–heat wave days, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: Mortality risks from future heat waves may be an order of magnitude higher than the mortality risks reported in 2002–2004, with thousands of heat wave–related deaths per year in the study area projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. Substantial spatial variability in county-level heat mortality estimates suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data. Citation: Wu J, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu JS, Johnson BA, Huang C, Kim YM, Liu Y. 2014. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 122:10–16; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306670
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Fischer, E. M.;Oleson, K. W.;Lawrence, D. M.
通讯作者：
Lawrence, D. M.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Gent, Peter R.;Danabasoglu, Gokhan;Zhang, Minghua
通讯作者：
Zhang, Minghua
贝叶斯模型平均方法是估计105个城市中与热浪相关的死亡率相对的相对风险。
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Bobb JF;Dominici F;Peng RD
通讯作者：
Peng RD
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Anderson GB;Bell ML
通讯作者：
Bell ML
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Davis RE;Knappenberger PC;Michaels PJ;Novicoff WM
通讯作者：
Novicoff WM