Brexit Dilemmas: Shaping Postwithdrawal Relations with a Leaving State
Brexit Dilemmas: Shaping Postwithdrawal Relations with a Leaving State
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英国脱欧困境：塑造脱欧后与脱欧国家的关系
DOI：
10.1017/s0020818321000412
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Jurado I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jurado I
当另一个国家单方面退出国际机构时，选民希望本国政府如何应对？我们区分不同的谈判方法，在何种程度上，他们适应退出国家的要求，并认为，谈判偏好是由两个问题。首先是选民对住宿成本和收益的暴露。这种暴露在不同的问题，我们认为，公民一般会喜欢非住宿零和问题，但支持更多的住宿合作问题，非住宿现有的合作收益处于危险之中。其次，退出谈判创造了先例，因此公民越是担心迁就对机构稳定性的涟漪反应，就越不愿意迁就。这些担忧也使公民面临两种困境，这取决于他们对机构本身的看法。为了检验我们的论点，我们使用调查证据和英国脱欧谈判期间在德国和西班牙进行的联合实验。我们发现，受访者总体上更愿意在合作问题上容纳英国，而不是零和问题，但也发现证据表明，欧洲怀疑论者和亲欧派面临不同的问题具体的困境。我们的文件有助于更好地了解近年来多边主义面临的各种挑战的动态。
How do voters want their governments to respond when another country unilaterally withdraws from an international institution? We distinguish between negotiation approaches that vary in the degree to which they accommodate the withdrawing state's demands and argue that negotiation preferences are shaped by two issues. The first is voters’ exposure to the costs and benefits of accommodation. This exposure varies across issues, and we argue that citizens will generally prefer non-accommodation on zero-sum issues, but support more accommodation on cooperation issues, where non-accommodation puts existing cooperation gains at risk. Second, withdrawal negotiations create precedents, and citizens should therefore be less willing to accommodate the more they are concerned about the ripple effects of accommodation on the institution's stability. These concerns also confront citizens with two types of dilemmas depending on how favorably they view the institution themselves. To test our argument, we use survey evidence and a conjoint experiment conducted in Germany and Spain during the Brexit negotiations. We find that respondents overall are more willing to accommodate the UK on cooperation issues than on zero-sum issues, but also find evidence that Euroskeptics and Europhiles confront different issue-specific dilemmas. Our paper contributes to a better understanding of the dynamics surrounding the challenges to multilateralism that have proliferated in recent years.
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DOI：
10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.615
发表时间：
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期刊：
The Review of International Organizations
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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