Climate variability affects water-energy-food infrastructure performance in East Africa
Climate variability affects water-energy-food infrastructure performance in East Africa
复制标题
气候变化影响东非水能源食品基础设施的绩效
DOI：
10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.009
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
D. Conway
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Siderius;S. Kolusu;M. Todd;A. Bhave;A. Dougill;C. Reason;David Mkwambisi;J. Kashaigili;J. Pardoe;J. Harou;K. Vincent;N. Hart;R. James;R. Washington;R. Geressu;D. Conway
人们普遍认识到，需要在不断变化的气候条件下评估主要基础设施的绩效，但很少付诸实践，特别是在快速增长的非洲经济体。在这里，我们考虑非洲气候过渡区两大河流流域的水、能源和食品行业的高风险投资。我们将观测和模拟的气候系统行为的详细解释与水文建模和决策相关的性能指标相结合。对于坦桑尼亚的Rufiji河，预计21世纪中期的风险与今天的风险相似，但对于马拉维湖-希雷河，未来的风险超过了20世纪的风险。在这两个流域，20世纪初多年干旱的重演将对拟建基础设施的可行性构成挑战。从长远的角度来看，强调过去和未来的变化，在更广泛的背景下的气候信息的解释和决策，是至关重要的筛选基础设施的风险。
The need to assess major infrastructure performance under a changing climate is widely recognized yet rarely practiced, particularly in rapidly growing African economies. Here, we consider high-stakes investments across the water, energy, and food sectors for two major river basins in a climate transition zone in Africa. We integrate detailed interpretation of observed and modeled climate-system behavior with hydrological modeling and decision-relevant performance metrics. For the Rufiji River in Tanzania, projected risks for the mid-21stcentury are similar to those of the present day, but for the Lake Malawi-Shire River, future risk exceeds that experienced during the 20thcentury. In both basins a repeat of an early-20thcentury multi-year drought would challenge the viability of proposed infrastructure. A long view, which emphasizes past and future changes in variability, set within a broader context of climate-information interpretation and decision making, is crucial for screening the risk to infrastructure.
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DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000680
发表时间：
2018-01
期刊：
Earth's Future
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Siderius;K. Gannon;M. Ndiyoi;A. Opere;N. Batisani;D. Olago;J. Pardoe;D. Conway
通讯作者：
C. Siderius;K. Gannon;M. Ndiyoi;A. Opere;N. Batisani;D. Olago;J. Pardoe;D. Conway
影响因子：
13.6
作者：
DiNezio, Pedro N.;Puy, Martin;Tierney, Jessica E.
通讯作者：
Tierney, Jessica E.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Seager, Richard;Cane, Mark;Zhang, Honghai
通讯作者：
Zhang, Honghai
影响因子：
8
作者：
James, Rachel;Washington, Richard;Senior, Cath
通讯作者：
Senior, Cath
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1809426115
发表时间：
2018-11-20
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Moran EF;Lopez MC;Moore N;Müller N;Hyndman DW
通讯作者：
Hyndman DW