Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration.
Signatures of the Venezuelan Humanitarian Crisis in the First Wave of COVID-19: Fuel Shortages and Border Migration.
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DOI：
10.3390/vaccines9070719
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发表时间：
2021-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Grillet ME
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lampo M;Hernández-Villena JV;Cascante J;Vincenti-González MF;Forero-Peña DA;Segovia MJ;Hampson K;Castro J;Grillet ME
检测和隔离对于控制 COVID-19 大流行至关重要。委内瑞拉是拉丁美洲检测基础设施最薄弱的国家之一，该国报告的病例数较低是由于严重漏报。然而，委内瑞拉疫情似乎落后于该地区其他国家，大多数病例发生在首都地区和四个边境州。在这里，我们描述了委内瑞拉 COVID-19 的空间流行病学及其与影响人口流动的人口流动、移民模式、非药物干预措施和燃料供应的关系。使用 SARS-CoV-2 传播动力学的集合群体模型，我们探索运动模式如何驱动观察到的病例分布。大多数州的国内连通性较低，很可能推迟了疫情的爆发，但与哥伦比亚和巴西接壤的州除外，这些州的移民数量较多，为疫情爆发埋下了种子。 NPI 减缓了早期流行病的增长，随后的燃料短缺似乎是限制 COVID-19 在全国范围内传播的原因。
Testing and isolation have been crucial for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Venezuela has one of the weakest testing infrastructures in Latin America and the low number of reported cases in the country has been attributed to substantial underreporting. However, the Venezuelan epidemic seems to have lagged behind other countries in the region, with most cases occurring within the capital region and four border states. Here, we describe the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 in Venezuela and its relation to the population mobility, migration patterns, non-pharmaceutical interventions and fuel availability that impact population movement. Using a metapopulation model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, we explore how movement patterns could have driven the observed distribution of cases. Low within-country connectivity most likely delayed the onset of the epidemic in most states, except for those bordering Colombia and Brazil, where high immigration seeded outbreaks. NPIs slowed early epidemic growth and subsequent fuel shortages appeared to be responsible for limiting the spread of COVID-19 across the country.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0906910106
发表时间：
2009-12-22
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Balcan, Duygu;Colizza, Vittoria;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Feng Y;Li Q;Tong X;Wang R;Zhai S;Gao C;Lei Z;Chen S;Zhou Y;Wang J;Yan X;Xie H;Chen P;Liu S;Xv X;Liu S;Jin Y;Wang C;Hong Z;Luan K;Wei C;Xu J;Jiang H;Xiao C;Guo Y
通讯作者：
Guo Y
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Nouvellet P;Bhatia S;Cori A;Ainslie KEC;Baguelin M;Bhatt S;Boonyasiri A;Brazeau NF;Cattarino L;Cooper LV;Coupland H;Cucunuba ZM;Cuomo-Dannenburg G;Dighe A;Djaafara BA;Dorigatti I;Eales OD;van Elsland SL;Nascimento FF;FitzJohn RG;Gaythorpe KAM;Geidelberg L;Green WD;Hamlet A;Hauck K;Hinsley W;Imai N;Jeffrey B;Knock E;Laydon DJ;Lees JA;Mangal T;Mellan TA;Nedjati-Gilani G;Parag KV;Pons-Salort M;Ragonnet-Cronin M;Riley S;Unwin HJT;Verity R;Vollmer MAC;Volz E;Walker PGT;Walters CE;Wang H;Watson OJ;Whittaker C;Whittles LK;Xi X;Ferguson NM;Donnelly CA
通讯作者：
Donnelly CA
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00632-2
发表时间：
2021-04-03
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Salyer SJ;Maeda J;Sembuche S;Kebede Y;Tshangela A;Moussif M;Ihekweazu C;Mayet N;Abate E;Ouma AO;Nkengasong J
通讯作者：
Nkengasong J
影响因子：
--
作者：
Jombart, Thibaut;van Zandvoort, Kevin;Edmunds, W John
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W John