Shifting landscape suitability for cocaine trafficking through Central America in response to counterdrug interdiction
Shifting landscape suitability for cocaine trafficking through Central America in response to counterdrug interdiction
复制标题
为应对反毒品拦截，改变中美洲可卡因贩运的景观适宜性
DOI：
10.1016/j.landurbplan.2022.104359
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
9.1
通讯作者：
Price, Ashleigh N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Magliocca, Nicholas R.;Summers, Diana S.;Curtin, Kevin M.;McSweeney, Kendra;Price, Ashleigh N.
可卡因贩运者，或“毒品贩运者”，成功地利用中美洲的异质景观进行跨国走私。贩毒者通过调整走私路线以逃避侦查，成功地适应了缉毒工作的中断，并由此给新的地区带来了森林砍伐、腐败和暴力等附带损害。这项研究是新颖的景观适宜性分析与犯罪学理论相结合，以了解这些空间适应的毒品贩运者故意的，合乎逻辑的，可预测的选择中美洲的景观的社会环境特征的基础上的位置。多层次、混合效应负二项回归模型预测了2007年至2018年哥斯达黎加、萨尔瓦多、危地马拉、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜和巴拿马17个省（分析单位）的可卡因贩运景观的适宜性。根据对该地区的长期研究，自变量包括靠近公路、国家边界和国际港口、土著领土、人口密度和保护区。在每一个departamento的峰值拦截（可卡因缉获量公斤测量）的一年被用来分析最大禁毒拦截压力之前和之后的景观适宜性的空间变化。我们发现，人口密度较低，更接近国际边界的地区变得更适合高峰拦截后，即，他们更有可能被贩运者寻求，以避免进一步干扰禁毒工作。此外，在执法部门开展大规模拦截活动后，土著领土被不成比例地用作可卡因贩运路线。虽然拦截可能降低目标地点的适宜性，但也可能无意中增加其他地点的吸引力。我们的研究通过将其应用于独特的空间/时间背景来推动犯罪学理论，并通过考虑景观对后勤而不是生产用途的适用性来推进土地系统科学。政策含义是明确的。由于阻截资源相对于贩运活动的总量而言是有限的，因此了解贩运者认为适合的地形特征可以在短期内指导阻截部署战略，并在较长期内制定战略，在最有可能的地方减轻贩运造成的相关危害。
Cocaine traffickers, or ‘narco-traffickers’, successfully exploit the heterogeneous landscapes of Central America for transnational smuggling. Narco-traffickers successfully adapt to disruptions from counterdrug interdiction efforts by spatially adjusting smuggling routes to evade detection, and by doing so bring collateral damages, such as deforestation, corruption, and violence, to new areas. This study is novel for its integration of landscape suitability analysis with criminological theory to understand the locations of these spatial adaptations by narco-traffickers as intentional, logical, and predictable choices based on the socio-environmental characteristics of Central America’s landscapes. Multi-level, mixed effects negative binomial regression models predict the suitability of landscapes for cocaine trafficking across 17departamentos(the unit of analysis) in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama from 2007 to 2018. Informed by long-term research in the region, independent variables included proximity to roads, country borders, and international ports, indigenous territories, population density, and protected areas. The year of peak interdiction (measured by kg of cocaine seized) in eachdepartamentowas used to analyze spatial shifts in landscape suitability before and after maximum counterdrug interdiction pressure. We find that areas with lower population density and closer proximity to international borders became more suitable following peak interdiction—i.e, they are more likely to be sought out by traffickers seeking to avoid further disruptions from counternarcotic efforts. Additionally, indigenous territories were disproportionately exploited as cocaine trafficking routes following significant interdiction activities by law enforcement. While interdiction may reduce the suitability of targeted locations, it can also unintentionally increase the attractiveness of other locations. Our study pushes criminological theory through its application to a unique space/time context, and it advances land system science by considering landscape suitability for logistical rather than productive uses. Policy implications are clear. Since interdiction resources are limited relative to the overall amount of trafficking activity, knowing which landscape features are viewed as suitable by traffickers can in the short-term guide interdiction deployment strategies, and in the longer term build strategies to mitigate associated harms from trafficking where they are most likely.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Daniel R. Lee
通讯作者：
Daniel R. Lee
目标适用性和犯罪率下降
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
N. Tilley;G. Farrell;R. Clarke
通讯作者：
R. Clarke
中美洲与可卡因贩运相关的森林损失时空分析
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
S. Sesnie;B. Tellman;D. Wrathall;K. McSweeney;Erik Nielsen;Karina Benessaiah;O. Wang;Luis Rey
通讯作者：
Luis Rey
影响因子：
5
作者：
Devine, Jennifer A.;Wrathall, David;Langarica, Yunuen Reygadas
通讯作者：
Langarica, Yunuen Reygadas
接地交通：洪都拉斯东部的可卡因商品链和土地掠夺
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
K. McSweeney;D. Wrathall;E. Nielsen;Z. Pearson
通讯作者：
Z. Pearson