Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.
Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agsy.2017.07.010
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发表时间：
2018-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Koehler AK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Challinor AJ;Müller C;Asseng S;Deva C;Nicklin KJ;Wallach D;Vanuytrecht E;Whitfield S;Ramirez-Villegas J;Koehler AK
作物模型的应用范围越来越广，方法也相应增多。因此，认真制定研究问题和制定有针对性的适当方法越来越重要。我们与这期特刊的其他作者一起，制定了一套在影响、适应和风险评估中使用作物模型的标准。我们的分析借鉴了本期特刊中的其他论文，以及我们在2017年英国气候变化风险评估和MACSUR，AgMIP和ISIMIP项目中的经验。这些标准被用来评估如何改进气候变化风险的框架，并概述改进风险评估所需的良好做法和新的发展。良好做法的主要领域包括：作物模型的开发、运行和记录，注意空间尺度和复杂性问题;二.用于形成作物气候集合的方法，其可以基于模型技术和/或传播; iii.用于评估适应的方法，需要扩大这些方法，以考虑到技术发展，并反映现有的各种备选办法。分析强调了仅侧重于预测未来影响和采用预先确定的时间段的适应办法的局限性。虽然这种长期存在的方法可能仍然是风险评估的一个重要组成部分，但我们确定了三个进一步的关键组成部分：与利益相关者合作，确定风险发生的时间。粮食系统的主要脆弱性是什么？作物气候模型在这些系统处于危险时告诉我们什么？使用多种方法，批判性地评估气候模式输出的使用，避免任何假设，即分析应该以网格输出开始开始和结束。提高风险评估的透明度和相互可比性。虽然研究经常产生量化不确定性的范围，但这些范围背后的假设并不总是明确的。我们建议通过一个共同的不确定性报告格式明确假设结果的偶然性;和/或根据一套标准（如本文所述）评估研究。在影响、适应和风险评估中使用作物模型的14个标准与利益攸关方合作确定风险发生的时间是风险评估的关键。需要多种方法来严格评估气候模型输出的使用
Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk? Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output. Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper. 14 criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk Working with stakeholders to identify timing of risks is key to risk assessments. Multiple methods needed to critically assess the use of climate model output Increasing transparency and inter-comparability needed in risk assessments
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影响因子：
11.6
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.11.012
发表时间：
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作者：
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