Competition, Relativism and Market Choice

大多数标准微观经济理论关注的是关键决策变量的绝对水平，而不是它们在主体之间的相对大小的重要性。企业利润最大化条件比较的是边际成本的绝对水平和边际收入的绝对水平。但这是从商人认为至关重要的大多数战略行为中抽象出来的。例如，两家公司在一个现有市场上竞争，比如主机市场。一家公司正试图决定是否进入一个目前尚不存在的新市场，比如个人电脑。进入的决定取决于对竞争对手的预期。计算一家公司相对于其竞争对手的表现，与计算边际成本与边际收入的绝对水平是一样重要的。这个项目的贡献来自于开发和实证检验直接基于相对比较的产品选择理论。其理念是，在一个市场上落后的公司有动力进入另一个结果差异更大的领域，就像游艇比赛中落后的船经常会从当前的方向转向，希望从意想不到的风向转变中获益，从而使新的航线更快。在游艇比赛中，领先者通过遵循对手的策略并转向新的方向来最大化获胜的机会，因为领先者保持了对挑战者的相对优势。如果风向对挑战者有利，领导者也会受益。如果没有，这位领导人仍有可能保持其领先地位。出于同样的原因，在原有市场中处于领先地位的公司可能会被拉入新市场的竞争中。该项目的目标是通过其他可观察的特征，如公司的年龄、启动成本和业务的内在风险，为跨行业公司的产品开发策略提供经验可测试的含义。研究人员在这一问题上的初步工作的高质量和独创性表明他们有能力实现这一目标。

Most of standard microeconomic theory focuses on the absolute level of crucial decision variables rather than on the importance of their relative magnitude among agents. The firm's profit maximization condition compares the absolute level of marginal costs with the absolute level of marginal revenue. But this abstracts from most of the strategic behavior that businessmen consider crucial. For example, two firms compete in an existing market, say, main frame computers. One firm is trying to decide whether to enter a new currently nonexistent market, say, personal computers. The decision to enter depends on expectations about what the firm's rival will do. Calculations about how one firm does relative to its rival are as important as calculations that align marginal cost with absolute levels of marginal revenue. The contribution of this project comes from developing and testing empirically a theory of product choice based directly on relative comparisons. The idea is that a firm that is behind in one market has an incentive to move into another line with higher variance outcomes, much like the trailing boat in yacht racing will often veer off from the current direction in the hopes of benefitting from an unexpected shift in the wind that would make the new course the faster one. In yacht racing, the leader maximizes his chances of winning by following the strategy of his opponent and also veering off in the new direction because the leader maintains his relative advantage over the challenger. If the wind shifts favorably for the challenger, the leader benefits as well. If it does not, the leader is still likely to maintain his lead. For the same reasons the firm that led in the original market may be drawn into competition in the new market. The goal of this project is to provide empirically testable implications for the product development strategies of firms across industries and by other observable characteristics, such as age of the firm, start-up costs, and inherent riskiness of the business. The high quality and originality of the preliminary work by the investigators on this subject show they have the ability to accomplish this goal.