Stochastic Analysis of Estuarine Hydrodynamics (RUI)

该建议的目的是建立一个二维随机河口水动力模型，其中包含描述河口系统边界和初始条件、参数场和强迫函数的概率因子。研究内容包括水动力方程解的参数和不确定性分析、随机预报问题的几种求解算法、蒙特卡罗方法拟线性化与摄动和算子分析相结合以及描述河口系统行为的随机微分方程组的直接求解。求解算法将被用来生成描述河口系统中水位和流量的概率密度函数和/或矩。在该项目的最后阶段，将使用解决方案算法对加利福尼亚州北部红杉溪河口的水位进行随机预测。预计调查结果将提供关于参数和强迫作用的不确定性如何影响水位高度输出变化的基线信息，以及用于预测河口水质变化的解决方案算法，这些水质变化受到来自工业、城市和农业来源的污染物的影响。

The objective of this proposal is to formulate a two dimensional stochastic estuarine hydrodynamic model, incorporating probabilistic factors that describe the estuarine system's boundary and initial conditions, parameter fields and forcing functions. The research will involve analysis of parameter and uncertainty on the solution of the hydrodynamic equations, use of several solution algorithms for the stochastic prediction problem, Monte Carlo method quasilinearization allied with perturbation and operator analysis and the direct solution of the stochastic differential equations that characterize behavior of the estuarine system. The solution algorithms will be used to generate the probability density functions and/or moments describing water elevations and flow rates in the estuarine system. During the final phase of the project, solution algorithms will be used for the stochastic prediction of water levels in the Redwood Creek estuary in northern California. The results of the investigation are expected to provide baseline information regarding how parameter and forcing function uncertainty affects the output variances of water elevations, and solution algorithms for predicting variations in estuarine water quality that is affected by pollutants from industrial, municipal and agricultural sources.