Studies in Unemployment and Labor Markets

该项目涉及工作变化和失业以及税收对劳动力供给的影响的微观实证研究。现有理论不能充分解释经济周期中劳动力市场的运行，也不能充分解释税收政策对总就业的影响。本研究的第一部分涉及基于工资差异作用的实证研究结果，开发一个详细的劳动力市场模型。这个模型将被用来解释在商业周期中工人辞职率和工作流动率的变化。研究的第二部分将分析所得税对工资和失业率的影响。我们将构建一个简单的美国经济结构模型，并将其用于分析税收变化的影响。对税收变化的分析很重要，因为宏观经济对税收增加的反应可能是失业、通货膨胀或两者的显著增加。这一分析尤其及时，因为格拉姆-鲁德曼-霍林斯法案要求削减预算赤字，这可能导致大幅增税。专注于劳动力市场建模的工作应该为商业周期中失业和就业流动的动态提供重要的新见解。

This project involves a micro-empirical study of job changes and unemployment and the effects of taxes on labor supply. Existing theories cannot adequately explain the operation of labor markets over the business cycle, nor the impact of tax policy on aggregate employment. The first part of this study involves the development of a detailed model of the labor market, based on empirical findings concerning the role of wage differentials. This model will be used to explain the changes in worker quit rates and job turnover rates over the business cycle. The second part of the study will analyze the effects of the income tax on wages and unemployment. A simple structural model of the U.S. economy will be constructed and used to analyze the impact of tax changes. The analysis of tax changes is important because the macro economic response to a tax increase may be a significant increase in unemployment, inflation, or both. This analysis is particularly timely because of the budget deficit reductions mandated by the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings legislation which could result in significant tax increases. The work focusing on modeling the labor market should provide important new insights into the dynamics of unemployment and job turnover over the business cycle.