Trade, Innovation and Growth

贸易、创新和增长

• 批准号: 8808614
• 负责人: Gene Grossman
• 金额: $ 11.23万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1988
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1988-07-15 至 1990-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8808614&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Trade; Innovation; Growth

The most active and exciting area in international economics currently consists of research like this project that synthesizes international trade theory and the theory of industrial organizations. This project develops models that allow consideration of the important dynamic issues that arise in the context of growth and development in an integrated world economy. A distinctive feature of the approach to these issues in comparison with earlier studies of international trade is the focus on the evolution of productivity change. Recent advances in the economics of research and development and learning-by-doing in markets with imperfect competition permit the construction of models in which innovation is endogenous to the model of international trade and not determined by factors outside the model. Case studies of post-war economic performance provide ample evidence of a systematic relationship between a country's trade regime and its long-run performance. For example, trade figures prominently in the Japanese success story. Yet existing trade theory predicts one-shot static effects of trade instead of the long-term dynamic regularities observed in the data. This project develops a dynamic theory that explains the empirical regularities and provides a basis for assessing competing explanations. This project contributes to our understanding of the link between trading opportunities, trade strategy, and economic growth. It also provides new and better explanations of dynamic processes in world trade identified by empirical researchers. This project addresses such important questions as: Do outward-looking, export-oriented less developed economies grow faster than those that concentrate instead on domestic markets? Does such a prescription hold for all points in time? And is welfare maximized by a policy of benign neglect or active promotion of exports? For the case of the industrially advanced countries, should industrial policies be used to promote domestic firms in their dynamic international competitions? How does trade policy influence the rate of technological innovation? What scope exists for international cooperation to maximize overall growth of the global economy?

目前，国际经济学中最活跃和最令人兴奋的领域包括像本项目这样的综合国际贸易理论和产业组织理论的研究。本项目开发的模型允许考虑在一体化世界经济的增长和发展背景下出现的重要动态问题。与早期的国际贸易研究相比，研究这些问题的方法的一个显著特点是侧重于生产率变化的演变。在不完全竞争的市场中，研究与发展经济学和“边做边学”的最新进展允许构建这样的模型：创新是国际贸易模型的内生因素，而不是由模型之外的因素决定。​战后经济表现的个案研究提供了充分的证据，证明一个国家的贸易体制与其长期表现之间存在着系统的关系。例如，贸易在日本的成功故事中占有突出地位。然而，现有的贸易理论预测的是贸易的一次性静态效应，而不是数据中观察到的长期动态规律。该项目发展了一个动态理论，解释了经验规律，并为评估相互竞争的解释提供了基础。这个项目有助于我们理解贸易机会、贸易战略和经济增长之间的联系。它还为实证研究人员确定的世界贸易动态过程提供了新的和更好的解释。该项目解决了以下重要问题：外向型、出口导向的欠发达经济体是否比那些专注于国内市场的经济体增长得更快？这样的处方对所有时间点都适用吗？福利最大化是通过良性忽视政策还是积极促进出口政策实现的？对于工业发达国家来说，是否应该使用产业政策来促进国内企业在充满活力的国际竞争中发展？贸易政策如何影响技术创新的速度？国际合作促进全球经济全面增长的空间有多大？