Diffusion and Multiple Equilibria

扩散和多重平衡

• 批准号: 8820796
• 负责人: Boyan Jovanovic
• 金额: $ 12.97万
• 依托单位: New York University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1989
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1989-06-15 至 1992-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8820796&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Diffusion; Multiple; Equilibria

The proposed research agenda consists of three broad parts. The first part involves a largely empirical investigation of the diffusion of technological innovations, and how this diffusion affects the aggregate behavior of output. More specifically, it is concerned with explaining the time-series behavior of GNP in terms of the time path of innovations and the speed with which they are diffused. This is expressed as a stochastic reduced- form equation relating current innovations in GNP to past innovations with various lags. Cross-section country data on GNP growth rates and innovation activity, for example, as measured by patent applications, are then used to estimate the parameters of the equation. The second part of the study consists of a theoretical development of three models regarding the adoption of technological innovations by firms, and of the process of diffusion of technical knowledge. The first of these models seeks to explain why bigger firms are usually the first to adopt a new innovation. The other two models deal with frictions in the spread of information, with an emphasis on personal contact. The final part of the research involves an econometric investigation of issues arising from the presence of multiple equilibria. In this setting, the parameters of preferences and technology generate a set of equilibria and then an outcome is chosen from this set. The question at issue is how to estimate the Markov process for selection given that part of the movement in equilibrium will be due to the presence of exogenous shocks. This fundamental research bears in a very important way on the general topic of how shocks to technology impact on both long- term growth and on cyclical fluctuations. The technological shocks, on which the research is focussed, are those that result in permanent additions to our stock of knowledge. Since the stock is much too large for anyone to be familiar with, its diffusion will determine its effect on output, productivity, investment, and other aggregates. It is the thesis of the investigator that such innovations occur largely at the firm level, and then spread throughout the economy in ways that despite their centrality are still imperfectly understood. Work already completed and the further work projected by this proposal, constitutes frontier research on the topic, which is of critical importance in the modern theory of "endogenous growth", and in modern business cycle theory.

拟议的研究议程包括三大部分。 的 第一部分涉及一个主要是实证调查的 技术创新的扩散，以及这种扩散 影响输出的总体行为。 更具体地说， 关注的是解释GNP的时间序列行为， 创新的时间路径和速度， 它们是分散的。 这表示为随机约化- 将当前的GNP创新与过去的GNP创新联系起来 创新有各种各样的滞后。 关于国民生产总值的跨部门国家数据 增长率和创新活动，例如， 通过专利申请，然后用于估计参数 的等式。 研究的第二部分包括一个 关于采用三种模式的理论发展 企业的技术创新，以及 传播技术知识。 第一个模型 试图解释为什么大公司通常是第一个采用 一个新的创新。 另外两个模型处理的是 信息的传播，强调个人接触。 研究的最后一部分涉及计量经济学 调查因存在多个 均衡 在此设置中，首选项和 技术产生了一组均衡， 从这一组中选出。 争论的问题是如何估计 马尔可夫过程选择给定的运动的一部分， 在均衡中，将是由于外部冲击的存在。 这一基础研究在很大程度上关系到 技术冲击如何影响长期和长期的一般话题 长期增长和周期性波动。 技术 冲击，研究的重点，是那些结果 为我们的知识宝库增添了永久的财富。 以来 股票太大了，任何人都不熟悉， 扩散将决定其对产量、生产率 投资和其他总量。 这是一个很大的问题。 调查人员说，这种创新主要发生在公司 水平，然后在整个经济中传播， 尽管他们的中心地位仍然不完全理解。 工作 已经完成的工作和预计的进一步工作， 建议，构成了对该主题的前沿研究，这是 在现代“内生”理论中， 经济周期理论和现代经济周期理论。