Reputations in Macroeconomics

该奖项资助的研究开发了有关企业之间可能关系的新理论。投资于声誉和宏观经济结果。我们早就知道，企业愿意为建立良好的声誉而投资。一个信誉良好的企业可以收取更高的价格，它将有更多的客户和对其产品的更高需求。本研究将分析声誉投资如何对总体冲击和部门冲击作出反应，以及即使没有冲击，声誉投资如何产生商业周期。总体目标是了解当公司关心其产品和/或服务的声誉时，意外的新信息（所谓的新闻冲击）如何影响投资、价格、产出和消费。因为这个项目对企业税收政策有一定的影响，除了促进科学的进步，还可能促进国家的繁荣。该模型采用了先前关于不可观察质量的企业声誉的研究，并将其扩展到具有总冲击和资产交易的一般均衡设置。其目标是为宏观经济结果提供新的解释。新闻冲击提高了产出和资产价格。新产品更容易受到声誉问题的影响，因为它们的质量在开发的早期阶段更不确定；假设耐用品行业的新产品流入速度更快，该行业就是一个领先指标。特殊波动率和总波动率的运动方向相反。多重均衡的产生是因为生产有一种通过贴现因素起作用的货币外部效应。尽管该模型没有直接的外部性，但即使没有冲击，一些均衡也是周期性的。

This award fund research that develops new theories about the possible relationship between firms? investment in reputation and macroeconomic outcomes. We have long known that businesses are willing to invest in building strong reputations. A reputable business can charge higher prices, it will have more clients and a higher demand for its products. This study will analyze how investment in reputation responds to aggregate and sectoral shocks, and how it generates business cycles even when shocks are not present. The overall goal is to understand how unexpected new information (so called news shocks) affect investment, prices, output, and consumption when firms care about the reputation of their products and/or services. Because the project has implications for corporate tax policy, besides advancing the progress of science it may also enhance national prosperity.The model takes previous work on firm reputation for unobservable quality and expands it to a general equilibrium setting with aggregate shocks and asset trading. The goal is to offer new explanations of macroeconomic outcomes. News shocks raise output and asset prices. New products are more subject to reputation concerns given that their quality is more uncertain at early stages of development; assuming that the durables sector features a faster flow of new products, this sector is a leading indicator. Idiosyncratic volatility and aggregate volatility move in opposite directions. Multiple equilibria arise because production has a pecuniary external effect that works through the discount factor. Although the model has no direct externalities, some equilibria are cyclical even if there are no shocks.