The Electricity Revolution and the Stock Market, 1885-1928

电力革命和股票市场，1885-1928 年

• 批准号: 0079274
• 负责人: Boyan Jovanovic
• 金额: $ 26.54万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-07-15 至 2004-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0079274&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Electricity; Revolution; Stock; Market; 1885

This project compares the ongoing Information Technology (IT) revolution with the Electricity Revolution (1885 - 1930). It focuses on the stock market, and on the role that the small firm played. Along with the CRSP panel, investigators have collected data on individual firms in the NYSE going back to 1885. Using these and other data from the curbmarket and other exchanges, the study asks if the stock market valuation of incumbent firms and the intensity of takeover activity during electrification behaved as they have so far in the IT era, and if we can expect a repeat of the 1929 stock market crash.Preliminary results suggest some key differences between electricity and the computer:1) Computer use is spreading faster than electricity did. This may have been because the heavy industrial nature of early applications of electricity delayed the entry of new and smaller firms.2) The decline and poor performance of incumbents associated with electrification lasted longer than in the case of IT.3) The merger wave of 1899-1900 was less effective as a policing device thanthe hostile takeover wave of the early 1980's.These three differences probably arise because the capital market is now more efficient than it used to be, and because it makes the entry of small firms easier. And, these differences may be precisely why the current IT driven rise in the stock market may be sustainable, while the rise of the late 1920's was not. Finally, IT probably has a stronger skill-bias than factory electrification did. But as skilled workers were scarce in those days, the skill premium was as high in the early part of the twentieth century as it is today.

这个项目比较了正在进行的信息技术（IT）革命和电力革命（1885 - 1930）。它关注的是股票市场，以及小公司所扮演的角色。除了CRSP小组，调查人员还收集了纽约证交所自1885年以来各家公司的数据。利用这些数据以及来自股票市场和其他交易所的其他数据，该研究询问，在电气化期间，现有公司的股票市场估值和收购活动的强度是否与迄今为止在IT时代的表现一样，以及我们是否可以预期1929年股市崩盘的重演。初步结果表明，电和电脑之间存在一些关键的区别：1)电脑的使用比电传播得快。这可能是因为早期电力应用的重工业性质推迟了新公司和小公司的进入。2)与电气化相关的现有企业的衰落和业绩不佳持续的时间比电气化持续的时间更长。3)1899-1900年的合并浪潮作为一种监管手段的效果不如20世纪80年代初的敌意收购浪潮。这三种差异的产生可能是因为资本市场现在比以前更有效率，也因为它使小企业更容易进入。而且，这些差异可能正是为什么当前IT驱动的股市上涨可能是可持续的，而20世纪20年代末的上涨却不是。最后，IT可能比工厂电气化更倾向于技能。但由于当时技术工人稀缺，20世纪初的技能溢价和今天一样高。