The Electricity Revolution and the Stock Market, 1885-1928

该项目将正在进行的信息技术(IT)革命与电力革命(1885-1930)进行比较。它的重点是股票市场，以及小公司所扮演的角色。与CRSP小组一起，调查人员收集了纽约证交所自1885年以来的个别公司的数据。这项研究使用这些数据以及来自期货市场和其他交易所的其他数据，询问现有公司的股票市场估值和电气化过程中收购活动的强度是否会像IT时代迄今那样表现，以及我们是否可以预期1929年的股市崩盘重演。初步结果表明，电力和计算机之间存在一些关键区别：1)计算机的普及速度比电力更快。这可能是因为早期电力应用的重工业性质推迟了新的和较小的公司的进入。2)与电气化相关的现有公司的衰落和糟糕业绩持续了比电气化更长的时间。3)1899-1900年的合并浪潮作为一种监管工具不如20世纪80年代初的敌意收购浪潮有效。这三个不同可能是因为资本市场现在比过去更有效率，也因为它使小公司更容易进入。而且，这些差异可能正是为什么当前IT推动的股市上涨可能是可持续的，而20世纪20年代末S的崛起却不是。最后，IT可能比工厂电气化有更强的技能偏见。但由于当时熟练工人稀缺，20世纪初的技能溢价与今天一样高。

This project compares the ongoing Information Technology (IT) revolution with the Electricity Revolution (1885 - 1930). It focuses on the stock market, and on the role that the small firm played. Along with the CRSP panel, investigators have collected data on individual firms in the NYSE going back to 1885. Using these and other data from the curbmarket and other exchanges, the study asks if the stock market valuation of incumbent firms and the intensity of takeover activity during electrification behaved as they have so far in the IT era, and if we can expect a repeat of the 1929 stock market crash.Preliminary results suggest some key differences between electricity and the computer:1) Computer use is spreading faster than electricity did. This may have been because the heavy industrial nature of early applications of electricity delayed the entry of new and smaller firms.2) The decline and poor performance of incumbents associated with electrification lasted longer than in the case of IT.3) The merger wave of 1899-1900 was less effective as a policing device thanthe hostile takeover wave of the early 1980's.These three differences probably arise because the capital market is now more efficient than it used to be, and because it makes the entry of small firms easier. And, these differences may be precisely why the current IT driven rise in the stock market may be sustainable, while the rise of the late 1920's was not. Finally, IT probably has a stronger skill-bias than factory electrification did. But as skilled workers were scarce in those days, the skill premium was as high in the early part of the twentieth century as it is today.