Multiple Equilibria and Self-aggregation of Deep Tropical Convection

在没有任何明显外部影响的情况下，热带深对流有聚集的趋势，这是大气科学中一个重要的悬而未决的问题。自聚集可能是气旋发生的前兆，因此对某些飓风的早期阶段可能很重要。马登-朱利安振荡在预报上是一个突出但难以捉摸的问题，也可能是对流自聚集的一种表现。这项研究的目的是利用云分解模式来研究热带对流中的自聚集现象。研究人员将利用一种新的策略，利用大区域中的自我聚集和有限区域模拟中的多个平衡之间的类比。了解控制自聚集的基本机制将是一项重大成就，并可极大地提高大尺度模式描述对流和大尺度热带气流之间相互作用过程的能力。因此，这一努力具有重大的更广泛的影响。除了本科生和研究生培训，还有一项工作计划，通过该计划，国际和平研究所将帮助教育K-12教师与气候有关的问题。

The tendency for deep tropical convection to aggregate in the absence of any obvious external influences represents an important unsolved problem in the atmospheric sciences. Self-aggregation may serve as a precursor to cyclogenesis, and therefore may be important to the early stages of some hurricanes. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, which represents a prominent but elusive problem in terms of prediction, may also be a manifestation of convective self-aggregation. The goal of the proposed research is to utilize a cloud resolving model to investigate the phenomenon of self-aggregation in tropical convection. The investigators will utilize a novel strategy which exploits the analogy between self-aggregation in large domains and multiple equilibria in limited domain simulations. Understanding the underlying mechanisms which control self-aggregation would constitute a major achievement and could greatly improve the ability of large scale models to represent interaction processes between convection and large-scale tropical flows. Thus this effort has significant broader impacts. In addition to undergraduate and graduate student training, there is a work plan through which the PI will help educate K-12 teachers on climate-related issues.