Analyzing Job Opportunities

长期以来，就业机会一直被认为在一系列重要的学术和政策问题上发挥着至关重要的作用。然而，尚不清楚从制造业向服务型经济的持续转变对近年来经济创造的就业机会的数量和类型产生了什么影响，以及对人口各阶层成功竞争这些机会的不断变化的能力产生了什么影响。对低技能劳动力需求的下降是否导致了下层阶级的增长？中等收入工作的蓝领机会有哪些？经济的变化对妇女和少数群体缩小职业和工资差异的努力有何影响？这项研究通过考察这些变化带来的就业机会，考察了国家职业和行业变化的影响。该项目将获得从1968年到1984年每年产生的就业机会的估计数，并将审查这些年来就业机会的趋势如何促进重要群体(包括妇女、少数族裔和传统蓝领制造业工作人员)职业地位的变化。这项研究将根据现时人口统计调查的数据，估计每年创造的就业机会总数，并按行业和职业区分这些就业机会。这将有助于说明从1968年到1984年按职业分列的就业机会趋势，并特别注意就业机会如何变化的问题。首席调查员还将开发新的统计模型，研究经济机会对工人从一个工作层次转移到另一个工作层次的可能性的影响。该项目的整体应该会大大促进我们对过去20年创造的就业机会以及不断变化的机会如何影响人口重要部分的劳动力市场经历的了解。它还应该提高我们对具有各种技能和特征的工人的职业轨迹的理解，这些工人面临着不断变化的劳动力市场。

Job opportunities have long been recognized as playing a crucial role in a wide range of important academic and policy issues. However, it is not clear what impact the continuing shift from a manufacturing to a service economy has had on the number and type of job opportunities that the economy has generated in recent years, and on the changing ability of various segments of the population to successfully compete for these opportunities. Has the declining need for low- skilled labor generated the growth of an underclass? What are the blue-collar opportunities for middle income jobs? How have shifts in the economy affected the efforts by women and minorities to reduce the occupation and wage differentials they experience? This research examines the implications of changes in the nation's occupations and industries by examining the job opportunities that arose as a consequence of these changes. The project will obtain estimates of the number of job opportunities that arose in each year from 1968 to 1984, and will examine how trends in job opportunities over these years have contributed to the changing occupational status of important sub-populations (including women, minorities, and workers in traditionally blue-collar manufacturing jobs). The study will draw on data from the Current Population Survey to estimate the total number of opportunities generated during each year, and will distinguish these job opportunities by industry and occupation. This will permit a description of trends in job opportunities by occupation from 1968 to 1984, with particular attention to questions of how job opportunities are changing. The principal investigator will also develop new statistical models of the influence of economic opportunities on the likelihood that workers will move from one job strata to another. The project in its entirety should considerably advance our knowledge of the job opportunities created in the past two decades and of ways in which changing opportunities have affected the labor market experiences of important segments of the population. It should also improve our understanding of the career trajectories of workers with various skills and characteristics who are confronted with a changing labor market.