Industry Equilibrium Dynamics & Theory of Technology Diffusion and Vintage Captial

在过去的几年里，新数据激增， 这些数据集和实证研究集中在大小 公司分布、营业额（公司的进入和退出）、 公司的成长和规模以及公司的 就业 该项目的目的是发展经济 模型，可以严格比较时间序列和交叉 现在可以获得有关行业行为的部分数据。 这些模型 最终将有助于预测和政策制定 评价。 更具体地说，过去的竞争行业分析 由调查员扩展到一个动态随机 框架.资本投资决策包括在 静态平衡分析，以允许分析 经济政策对企业周转率的影响， 规模分布和就业可变性。 总 竞争产业动态理论被扩展到解释 不确定性和资本积累。 这一理论 提供了一种动态规划算法。 该项目还分析了技术变革的扩散， 在技术互补的情况下实现增长， 一般均衡中的特定资本形式 框架. 增长模型的动力学性质是 分析，重点是了解现有的分布 具体资本的引入影响新的 预期在新技术传播中的作用 技术;创新、传播和 和增长;以及一个关于组织扩散的模型 资本 这个项目很重要，因为它填补了 产业组织文献 相比之下， 在这一领域的实证研究中，很少有人尝试 开发关于产业行为动态的经济模型 对进入、周转率、退出和规模的影响 公司的分布。 研究结果应 提供了一些新的见解， 比如均衡价格、营业额、集中度 由于需求的变化， 或新产业的发展或变化的影响 在一个衰落的行业的发展需求。

During the last few years there has been an explosion of new data sets and empirical studies of these data focused on the size distribution of firms, turnover (entry and exit of firms), growth and size of firms and the variability of firms' employment. The purpose of this project is to develop economic models that can rigorously compare the time series and cross section data on industry behavior now available. These models will ultimately be useful for predictions and policy evaluations. More specifically, past competitive industry analysis by the investigator is extended to a dynamic stochastic framework. Capital investment decisions are included in the stationary equilibrium analysis to permit the analysis of the impact of economic policies on the rate of turnover of firms, size distribution and variability of employment. The general competitive industry dynamic theory is extended to account for aggregate uncertainty and capital accumulation. This theory provides a dynamic programming algorithm. The project also analyzes diffusion of technological change and growth in the presence of technological complementarities and specific (putty clay) forms of capital, in a general equilibrium framework. The dynamic properties of the growth model are analyzed, focusing on understanding how the existing distribution of specific capital affects the introduction of new technologies; the role of expectations in the diffusion of new technologies; joint implications between innovation, diffusion and growth; and a model on the diffusion of organization capital. This project is important because it fills a gap in the industrial organization literature. In contrast to the vast empirical work in this field, there have been very few attempts to develop economic models on the dynamics of industry behavior with implications on entry, the rate of turnover, exit and size distribution of firms. The results of the research should provide new insights into a number of extremely significant issues such as how equilibrium prices, turnover, concentration, etc. evolve in an industry as a consequence of a change in demand or the evolution of new industries or the implications of changes in demand for the evolution of a declining industry.