Ensemble modelling of space-weather drivers

空间天气驱动因素的集合建模

• 批准号: DP230101240
• 负责人: Prof David Pontin
• 金额: $ 35.18万
• 依托单位: The University of Newcastle
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2025-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP230101240
• 关键词: Ensemble; modelling; space; weather; drivers

This project aims to develop methods for forecasting the evolution of magnetic fields on the Sun's surface, and to use the results to drive an ensemble of numerical simulations of the evolution of the magnetic field in the overlying atmosphere. The project expects to create a new framework for forecasting the evolution of solar active regions, applying, for the first time, methods established in Numerical Weather Prediction. The expected outcomes are physics-based prediction of solar atmospheric magnetic field evolution, including explosive eruptions. The results should have significant benefit in improving prediction of extreme space weather events, which pose an increasing threat to our technologically-dependent society.

该项目旨在开发预测太阳表面上磁场演化的方法，并使用结果来驱动上上层气氛中磁场演变的数值模拟集合。该项目预计将创建一个新的框架，以预测太阳活动区域的演变，该框架首次应用在数值天气预测中建立的方法。预期的结果是基于物理学的太阳大气磁场演化的预测，包括爆炸性喷发。结果在改善极端太空天气事件的预​​测方面应该具有重大好处，这对我们的技术依赖社会构成了越来越多的威胁。