Ensemble modelling of space-weather drivers

空间天气驱动因素的集合建模

• 批准号: DP230101240
• 负责人: Prof David Pontin
• 金额: $ 35.18万
• 依托单位: The University of Newcastle
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2025-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP230101240
• 关键词: Ensemble; modelling; space; weather; drivers

This project aims to develop methods for forecasting the evolution of magnetic fields on the Sun's surface, and to use the results to drive an ensemble of numerical simulations of the evolution of the magnetic field in the overlying atmosphere. The project expects to create a new framework for forecasting the evolution of solar active regions, applying, for the first time, methods established in Numerical Weather Prediction. The expected outcomes are physics-based prediction of solar atmospheric magnetic field evolution, including explosive eruptions. The results should have significant benefit in improving prediction of extreme space weather events, which pose an increasing threat to our technologically-dependent society.

该项目的目的是制定预测太阳表面磁场演变的方法，并利用其结果推动对上层大气中磁场演变的整体数值模拟。该项目预计将建立一个新的框架，用于预测太阳活动区的演变，首次应用数值天气预报中建立的方法。预期成果是对太阳大气磁场演变，包括爆炸性喷发进行基于物理学的预测。这些结果将大大有助于改进对极端空间天气事件的预测，这些事件对我们依赖技术的社会构成越来越大的威胁。