Examining the glacial cycle phase space through data-integrated glacial systems modelling

过去是我们通向未来的模糊窗口。透过这扇窗，诱人的差异指向裂缝 在我们对冰、地球和气候系统耦合的理解中。过去13万年的冰川和冰川 气候变化提供了气候系统状态的重大变化以及突然倾倒的例子 有针对性的行为。 这个系统的变化性的动力来源仍然很少被理解。也有令人费解的 在解释在最后一次冰期最大时推断的全球平均海平面(“失踪”问题)方面的不足 冰“)也是最后一次(伊米亚)间冰期海平面上升6-10米的来源 12.5万年前。 对潜在气候变化的科学评估在很大程度上依赖于气候模型。通过复制 目前的气候对模型来说是一个具有挑战性的测试，因为这些模型已经是有限的测试 调整以适应目前的情况。回答与气候系统潜在的巨大变化有关的问题 (尤其是所谓的临界点)，模型最好是对照过去进行测试。 这些测试的关键是对过去地形、冰盖和相关的变化做出可信的推断 融化的水排入海洋。拟议的研究将通过以下方式显著提炼这些推论 先进的计算模型和大量不同的古数据集在统计上的稳健整合。这 将解决或进一步澄清失踪的冰层问题。研究计划还将应用这些 用模式指导冰川和气候系统可变性检验的改进的冰川年表 包括气候、冰盖和地球组成部分。 通过在此框架内部署越来越复杂的模型，我们将测试 目前的模型和理解可以复制和解释过去的冰盖演化和不稳定事件。 这些试验将反过来促进对未来冰盖演化的不确定性的估计 以及与气候系统相关的冰盖相互作用，解决当前气候中的一个主要差距 变更评估。

The past is our fuzzy window to the future. Through this window, tantalizing discrepancies point to cracks in our understanding of the coupled ice, earth, and climate system. The last 130,000 year history of ice and climate change offers major changes in the state of the climate system as well as examples of abrupt tipping point behaviour. The dynamical source of the variability of this system is still poorly understood. There are also perplexing shortfalls in explaining inferred global mean sea level at Last Glacial Maximum (the problem of “missing ice”) as well the source of an inferred 6-10 m higher sea level during the last (Eemian) interglacial, about 125,000 years ago. Scientific assessments of potential climate change rely heavily on climate models. Though replication of present-day climate is a challenging test for models, it is only a limited test since these models are already tuned to fit the present. To answer questions related to potentially large changes in the climate system (especially so-called tipping points), models are best tested against the past. Critical to these tests is a confident inference of the past change in topography, ice cover, and associated meltwater drainage into the ocean. The proposed research will significantly refine these inferences through statistically robust integration of advanced computed models and large diverse sets of paleo data. This will either resolve or further clarify the missing ice issue. The research program will also apply these refined ice chronologies to direct examination of variability in the glacial ice and climate system with models encompassing the climate, ice sheet, and earth components. By deploying increasingly sophisticated models within this framework, we will test the extent to which current models and understanding can replicate and explain past ice sheet evolution and instability events. These tests will in turn facilitate the estimation of uncertainties concerning both future ice sheet evolution and associated ice sheet interactions with the climate system, addressing a major gap in current climate change assessments.