Examining the glacial cycle phase space through data-integrated glacial systems modelling

通过数据集成冰川系统建模检查冰川循环相空间

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-06658
• 负责人: Tarasov, Lev
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=763218
• 关键词: Examining; glacial; cycle; phase; space

The past is our fuzzy window to the future. Through this window, tantalizing discrepancies point to cracksin our understanding of the coupled ice, earth, and climate system. The last 130,000 year history of ice andclimate change offers major changes in the state of the climate system as well as examples of abrupt tippingpoint behaviour.The dynamical source of the variability of this system is still poorly understood. There are also perplexingshortfalls in explaining inferred global mean sea level at Last Glacial Maximum (the problem of “missingice”) as well the source of an inferred 6-10 m higher sea level during the last (Eemian) interglacial, about125,000 years ago.Scientific assessments of potential climate change rely heavily on climate models. Though replication ofpresent-day climate is a challenging test for models, it is only a limited test since these models are alreadytuned to fit the present. To answer questions related to potentially large changes in the climate system(especially so-called tipping points), models are best tested against the past.Critical to these tests is a confident inference of the past change in topography, ice cover, and associatedmeltwater drainage into the ocean. The proposed research will significantly refine these inferences throughstatistically robust integration of advanced computed models and large diverse sets of paleo data. Thiswill either resolve or further clarify the missing ice issue. The research program will also apply theserefined ice chronologies to direct examination of variability in the glacial ice and climate system with modelsencompassing the climate, ice sheet, and earth components.By deploying increasingly sophisticated models within this framework, we will test the extent to whichcurrent models and understanding can replicate and explain past ice sheet evolution and instability events.These tests will in turn facilitate the estimation of uncertainties concerning both future ice sheet evolutionand associated ice sheet interactions with the climate system, addressing a major gap in current climatechange assessments.

过去是我们通往未来的模糊窗口。通过这个窗口，诱人的差异指出了我们对冰，地球和气候系统耦合的理解。冰和气候变化的最后130,000年的历史为气候系统状态以及突然临界点行为的示例提供了重大变化。该系统的可变性的动态来源仍然知之甚少。在解释最终冰川最大的最大全球平均海平面（“失踪”问题）以及在最后一（EEMIAN）间冰川中，大约125，000年前的海平面上提出的6-10 m高6-10 m的来源，大约125，000年前，潜在的气候变化巨大评估依赖攀登模型，这也存在着全球平均海平面（“缺失”的问题）。尽管当今气候的复制是模型的挑战测试，但这只是一个有限的测试，因为这些模型已经调整为适合当前的测试。答案问题与气候系统的潜在大型变化有关（尤其是所谓的临界点），模型最好与过去进行测试。对这些测试的批判性是对过去的地形变化，冰盖和相关的融合水流的自信推断。拟议的研究将通过对高级计算模型和大量各种古数据集的稳定整合来显着完善这些推论。这将解决或进一步阐明缺失的冰问题。该研究计划还将将冰期的冰时间应用于冰川冰和气候系统中的可变性进行直接检查，该模型可以组合气候，冰原和地球成分。通过在此框架中部署越来越多的模型，我们将在此框架内部署越来越复杂的模型，我们将测试当前的模型和理解可以重复和解释过去的冰纸进化和不稳定的估算。以及与气候系统相关的冰盖相互作用，解决了当前的Climatechange评估中的主要差距。