Examining the glacial cycle phase space through data-integrated glacial systems modelling

通过数据集成冰川系统建模检查冰川循环相空间

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-06658
• 负责人: Tarasov, Lev
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2023-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=763218
• 关键词: Examining; glacial; cycle; phase; space

The past is our fuzzy window to the future. Through this window, tantalizing discrepancies point to cracksin our understanding of the coupled ice, earth, and climate system. The last 130,000 year history of ice andclimate change offers major changes in the state of the climate system as well as examples of abrupt tippingpoint behaviour.The dynamical source of the variability of this system is still poorly understood. There are also perplexingshortfalls in explaining inferred global mean sea level at Last Glacial Maximum (the problem of “missingice”) as well the source of an inferred 6-10 m higher sea level during the last (Eemian) interglacial, about125,000 years ago.Scientific assessments of potential climate change rely heavily on climate models. Though replication ofpresent-day climate is a challenging test for models, it is only a limited test since these models are alreadytuned to fit the present. To answer questions related to potentially large changes in the climate system(especially so-called tipping points), models are best tested against the past.Critical to these tests is a confident inference of the past change in topography, ice cover, and associatedmeltwater drainage into the ocean. The proposed research will significantly refine these inferences throughstatistically robust integration of advanced computed models and large diverse sets of paleo data. Thiswill either resolve or further clarify the missing ice issue. The research program will also apply theserefined ice chronologies to direct examination of variability in the glacial ice and climate system with modelsencompassing the climate, ice sheet, and earth components.By deploying increasingly sophisticated models within this framework, we will test the extent to whichcurrent models and understanding can replicate and explain past ice sheet evolution and instability events.These tests will in turn facilitate the estimation of uncertainties concerning both future ice sheet evolutionand associated ice sheet interactions with the climate system, addressing a major gap in current climatechange assessments.

过去是我们通向未来的模糊窗口。通过这个窗口，诱人的差异表明我们对冰、地球和气候系统耦合的理解存在缺陷。过去13万年的冰和气候变化历史提供了气候系统状态的重大变化以及突然的临界点行为的例子。对这个系统变化的动力学来源仍然知之甚少。在解释推断的末次盛冰期全球平均海平面（即“缺失冰”问题）以及推断的大约125,000年前末次间冰期（Eemian）海平面升高6-10米的原因方面，也存在令人困惑的不足。对潜在气候变化的科学评估在很大程度上依赖于气候模型。尽管对模型来说，复制当今气候是一个具有挑战性的测试，但这只是一个有限的测试，因为这些模型已经调整到适合现在。为了回答与气候系统中潜在的巨大变化（尤其是所谓的临界点）有关的问题，最好用过去的数据来检验模型。这些检验的关键是对过去地形、冰盖和相关的融水排入海洋的变化做出可靠的推断。拟议中的研究将通过先进的计算模型和大量不同的古数据集的统计鲁棒集成，显着完善这些推论。这将解决或进一步澄清失踪的冰问题。该研究计划还将应用这些精确的冰年表，通过涵盖气候、冰盖和地球组成部分的模型，直接检查冰川冰和气候系统的变化。通过在这个框架内部署越来越复杂的模型，我们将测试现有的模型和理解能够在多大程度上复制和解释过去的冰盖演变和不稳定事件。这些测试反过来将有助于估计关于未来冰盖演变和相关冰盖与气候系统相互作用的不确定性，解决目前气候变化评估中的一个主要空白。