Campaign Contributions as Investments: Theory and Evidence

人们普遍认为，许多政治竞选的捐款人将他们的捐款视为一种投资，期望从他们的钱中获得一些私人利益。这种利益可能是特殊的税收减免，为政府提供一些商品或服务的有利可图的合同，或者可能是一个官方职位。在作出捐款时，不需要立即得到利益，甚至不需要精确地确定。相反，贡献者可能只是期望，在未来的某个时候，接受者将能够并且愿意提供一些所需的服务。这个项目继续发展一种竞选资金模型，在这种模型中，政治“恩惠”市场被视为一种资产市场。这个模型抓住了人们所期望的交换条件捐款市场的许多基本特征，并产生了许多有趣而有力的假设，这些假设可以在经验上检验选举期间的捐款模式。正在为当前项目开发的扩展包括：(1)对现任者的竞选进行详细调查；(2)明确考虑达到平衡所涉及的动态；(3)允许捐款人提供选票和金钱以换取政治上的支持；(5)对小额个人捐款人进行建模，或许将他们的捐款视为一种消费品。实证检验涉及美国国会和加州立法机构竞选的数据。竞选资金问题一直是公共政策辩论的焦点。更好地理解竞选筹资过程对于制定明智的公共政策至关重要。

It is widely believed that many contributions to political campaigns view their contributions as a kind of investment, expecting some private benefit in return for their money. This benefit might be a special tax reduction, a profitable contract to provide some goods or services to the government, or perhaps an official position. The benefit need not be forthcoming or even precisely defined at the time the contribution is made. Rather, the contributor may simply expect that , sometime in the future, the recipient will be able and willing to provide some desired service. This project continues the development of a model of campaign funds in which the market for political "favors" is treated as an asset market. This model captures many of the essential features one would expect of a market for quid pro quo contributions, and yields a number of interesting and strong hypotheses which are empirically testable about the pattern of contributions across elections. The extensions that are being developed for the current project include: (1) detailed investigation of races with incumbents, (2) explicit consideration of the dynamics involved in reaching an equilibrium, (3) allowing contributors to supply votes as well as money in exchange for political favors, and (5) modelling small, individual contributors, perhaps treating their contributions as a kind of consumer good. Empirical tests involve data on campaigns for the U.S. Congress and the California Legislature. Campaign-financing issues are under continuous public policy debate. A better understanding of the campaign-financing process is essential for the construction of sensible public policy.