Testing the 'Scenario' Hypothesis

测试“情景”假设

• 批准号: 9012040
• 负责人: Howard Margolis
• 金额: $ 2.05万
• 依托单位: University of Chicago
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1990
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1990-07-15 至 1991-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9012040&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Testing; Scenario; Hypothesis

A theory of judgmental illusions proposed by the investigator in his recent book, "Patterns, Thinking, and Cognition," will be tested experimentally. The theory claims that people evaluate decision situations by calling to mind familiar scenarios. Such scenarios are often stored in related pairs in a person's memory. The theory claims that many judgmental errors occur when situational cues summon the inappropriate scenario from the relevant pair. A series of experiments will be conducted to manipulate the salience of specific scenarios. This work will add to our understanding of the way people make decisions, and suggest ways of improving decision making by generating clues for how people can select the most appropriate scenario for the current problem situation.

研究者在他最近的著作《模式、思维和认知》中提出的判断幻觉理论将得到实验测试。 该理论声称，人们通过回想起熟悉的场景来评估决策情况。 此类场景通常成对地存储在人的记忆中。该理论声称，当情境线索从相关配对中召唤出不适当的场景时，就会发生许多判断错误。 将进行一系列实验来操纵特定场景的显着性。 这项工作将加深我们对人们决策方式的理解，并通过为人们如何为当前问题情况选择最合适的场景提供线索，提出改进决策的方法。