Collaborative Research on the Use of Case Control Methods To Test Opportunity Theory

在过去的十年中，犯罪病因学的一个主要焦点是受害的机会理论。这些理论的吸引力在于，机会和犯罪动机一样，都是犯罪发生的必要因素。尽管机会理论很受欢迎，但无论是理论研究还是实证研究都没有超越20世纪70年代末阐明的原始原则。由于过分依赖二手资料，限制了概念的完善和理论命题的检验，这一理论的发展受到了阻碍。因此，该理论的发展不足以使关键机会概念付诸实施。这个合作项目将通过使用案例控制设计来完善和测试理论，并将其应用于非商业抢劫，从而加快理论的建立。50名抢劫受害者和50名非受害者将接受结构化和半结构化问题的采访。将收集每个群体的生活方式和生态环境的定性和定量信息。这些信息将用于确定(1)与成为抢劫受害者相关的情境和生活方式；(2)受害者和非受害者在生态和生活方式模式方面的可识别差异。研究结果将使犯罪机会模型在适用于受害时得到改进。同样重要的是，它将为测试机会模型提供病例控制设计的效用评估。除了推进犯罪学研究的理论和方法之外，这项研究的结果可能对减少犯罪具有重要意义。

Over the past decade, a major focus of crime etiology has been opportunity theories of victimization. The appeal of these theories has been the idea that opportunity, as much as criminal motivation, is a necessary element for crime to occur. Despite the popularity of opportunity theory, neither theoretical nor empirical research has gone much beyond the original principles articulated in the late 1970's. The development of the theory has been slowed by the over-reliance on secondary data which has limited the refinement of concepts and the testing of theoretical propositions. As a result, the theory is not sufficiently developed to operationalize key opportunity concepts. This collaborative project will expedite theory building by using a case-control design to refine and test the theory as it applies to non-commercial robbery. A sample of 50 robbery victims and 50 nonvictims will be interviewed using both structured and semi- structured questions. Qualitative and quantitative information will be collected on both the lifestyle and ecological contexts of each group. This information will be used to determine (1) the situational and lifestyle circumstances associated with becoming a robbery victim and (2) discernable differences between victims and nonvictims in terms of their ecological and lifestyle patterns. The results of the research will enable refinements to the criminal opportunity model as it applies to victimization. As importantly, it will provide an assessment of the utility of the case-control design for testing opportunity models. Beyond advancing theory and methodology in criminological research, results of this research could have significant implications for crime reduction.