Dynamic Meteorology

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Lindzen will continue his research on a broad set of problems in dynamic meteorology which follow from studies conducted under his previous grant. Five specific topics for further research over the next three years are planned: (1) a special hydrodynamic mechanism that may allow energy extracted from a region of shear flow to be transported away by waves, (2) gravitational tides on Jovian planets, (3) a possible cause of the 100,000-year quasi- periodicity of ice ages, (4) a new procedure to produce initial data for numerical weather forecasts, and (5) the role of the water vapor budget of the upper troposphere in climate and climate change. His research on the first topic could uncover a process essen- tial in shaping the atmospheric general circulation. The atmo- spheres of other planets, or the paleoclimatology of ours, are so remote in space and time that these studies might appear, superfi- cially, to be only of pedagogical and theoretical interest. They will, however, add to our body of knowledge and understanding of the behavior of planetary atmospheres. Lindzen is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and, arguably, the leading present-day dynamic meteorologist. His continued attention to refining the sys- tem that produces our routine, daily computerized weather forecasts serves as an example to the younger members of the research community in atmospheric sciences. He has also been an outspoken public critic of the global warming numbers calculated by the present generation of climate models. He bases his skepticism on their imprecise treatment of the feedbacks linking water vapor, cloud, and solar and terrestrial radiation. Improving this aspect of the models is generally acknowledged to be one of most challenging problems in climate science, and has the highest research priority in science planning and policy. With his work on the final topic he will contribute to intensified international efforts on the quantitative specification of these links.