Learning and Interdependent Decision Making, Modeling Farmers' Technology Adoption Decisions in Developing Countries

该研究项目的主要目标是开发新的 研究采用技术创新的方法， 不确定的盈利能力。 重点将放在以下情况： 学习这项技术，无论是从自己的过去， 经验，或从别人的成功，是很重要的。 是 重要是因为采用者之间的外部性意味着扩散 发生在低于社会最优速率的情况下。 实证分析 这种情况也提出了有趣的方法 问题. 拟议的研究有三个部分。 首先， 为农民决策提供理论依据。 通过学习，每个农民的决策问题是一个 动态规划问题和均衡采用路径， 通过使用适当的仪器。 第二，反映战略相互依存的计量经济学模型， 必须发展农民的决策。 采用A的途径 新技术反映了动态离散选择优化。 一 模拟矩量法程序将被用来估计一个 具有邻域效应的动力系统 最后，将开发的理论和计量经济学模型， 使用国际作物委员会的十年面板数据集进行测试， 东南干旱热带研究所。 本研究将 在半干旱地区采用高产棉花品种的可能性 印度干旱的热带地区。

The primary objective of this research project is to develop new methods for studying the adoption of technological innovations of uncertain profitability. The focus will be on situations where learning about the technology, either from one's own past experience, or from the success of others, is significant. It is important since externalities between adopters imply that diffusion occurs at less than the socially optimal rate. Empirical analysis of such situations also raises interesting methodological questions. The proposed study has three parts. First, the interdependence of farmers' decisions will be given a theoretical foundation. Incorporating learning, the decision problem for each farmer is a dynamic programming problem and equilibrium adoption paths are found by applying the appropriate apparatus. Second, econometric models reflecting strategic interdependence in farmers' decisions must be developed. The path of adoption of a new technology reflects dynamic discrete choice optimization. A simulated methods of moments procedure will be used to estimate a dynamic system with neighborhood effects. Finally, the theoretical and econometric models developed will be tested using a ten year panel data set from the International Crops Research Institute for the SEmi-Arid Tropics. The study will be of the adoption of higher yielding varieties cotton in the semi- arid tropics of India.