Learning and Interdependent Decision Making, Modeling Farmers' Technology Adoption Decisions in Developing Countries

这项研究项目的主要目标是开发新的方法来研究采用不确定盈利能力的技术创新。重点将放在从自己过去的经验或从他人的成功中学习技术具有重要意义的情况。这一点很重要，因为采纳者之间的外部性意味着传播发生的速度低于社会最优比率。对这类情况的实证分析也提出了有趣的方法论问题。拟议的研究包括三个部分。首先，将为农民决策的相互依存性提供理论基础。结合学习，每个农户的决策问题是一个动态规划问题，通过应用适当的设备找到均衡的采用路径。其次，必须建立计量经济学模型，反映农民决策中的战略相互依赖。采用新技术的路径反映了动态离散选择优化。本文将用一种模拟的矩方法来估计一个具有邻域效应的动态系统。最后，开发的理论和计量经济学模型将使用国际半干旱热带作物研究所的十年面板数据集进行检验。这项研究将在印度半干旱热带地区采用高产品种棉花。

The primary objective of this research project is to develop new methods for studying the adoption of technological innovations of uncertain profitability. The focus will be on situations where learning about the technology, either from one's own past experience, or from the success of others, is significant. It is important since externalities between adopters imply that diffusion occurs at less than the socially optimal rate. Empirical analysis of such situations also raises interesting methodological questions. The proposed study has three parts. First, the interdependence of farmers' decisions will be given a theoretical foundation. Incorporating learning, the decision problem for each farmer is a dynamic programming problem and equilibrium adoption paths are found by applying the appropriate apparatus. Second, econometric models reflecting strategic interdependence in farmers' decisions must be developed. The path of adoption of a new technology reflects dynamic discrete choice optimization. A simulated methods of moments procedure will be used to estimate a dynamic system with neighborhood effects. Finally, the theoretical and econometric models developed will be tested using a ten year panel data set from the International Crops Research Institute for the SEmi-Arid Tropics. The study will be of the adoption of higher yielding varieties cotton in the semi- arid tropics of India.