RAPID: Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Crime and Corrections Populations

轶事新闻报道清楚地表明，COVID-19大流行正在对美国的犯罪以及监狱和监狱人口产生深远影响。大多数犯罪的短期减少与各种基于机会的犯罪理论是一致的，因为街上和酒吧等场所的人减少了。关于家庭暴力增加的报告与基于机会的理论以及基于压力的理论相一致。然而，从长远来看，随着人们受到更大的经济影响，所报道的犯罪减少趋势可能会逆转。在这次大流行期间，限制当地监狱和监狱的准入和加速释放对这些设施内的犯罪和感染率的影响也是未知的，也是政策关注的问题。将在县和市一级对犯罪和监狱人口的影响进行分析，在州一级对监狱人口的影响进行分析。为了估计这些影响，我们的目标是做差异中差异类型的分析。该项目的主要目标是，在今后可能再次出现这种流行病之前，对犯罪和矫正人口的这些影响进行快速分析，并与政策制定者分享严谨的分析，以帮助他们在应对危机时作出决定。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Anecdotal news accounts make clear that the COVID-19 pandemic is having profound impacts on crime and on jail and prison populations in the United States. The short-term reductions in most crimes are consistent with various opportunity-based theories of crime with fewer people on the streets and visiting places like bars. The reports of increased domestic violence align with opportunity-based theories and in addition strain-based theories. Over the longer term, however, the reported crime reduction trends may reverse themselves as people become more economically impacted. Impacts of restricted admissions and accelerated releases from local jails and prisons on crime and on infection rates, within these facilities during this pandemic, are also unknown and of policy interest. Analyses will be conducted at the level of county and city for crime and jail population impacts and at the level of the state for prison population impacts. To estimate these effects we aim to do difference-in-difference type analyses. The main objectives of this project are to provide a rapid analysis of these impacts on crime and corrections populations to be completed prior to a possible future resurgence of the pandemic, and to share with policymakers rigorous analyses that will assist in informing their decisions in dealing with the crisis.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.