RAPID: Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Crime and Corrections Populations

RAPID：Covid-19 大流行对犯罪和惩教人口的影响

• 批准号: 2029890
• 负责人: Daniel Nagin
• 金额: $ 3.74万
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-05-01 至 2022-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2029890&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Impact; Covid; 19; Pandemic

Anecdotal news accounts make clear that the COVID-19 pandemic is having profound impacts on crime and on jail and prison populations in the United States. The short-term reductions in most crimes are consistent with various opportunity-based theories of crime with fewer people on the streets and visiting places like bars. The reports of increased domestic violence align with opportunity-based theories and in addition strain-based theories. Over the longer term, however, the reported crime reduction trends may reverse themselves as people become more economically impacted. Impacts of restricted admissions and accelerated releases from local jails and prisons on crime and on infection rates, within these facilities during this pandemic, are also unknown and of policy interest. Analyses will be conducted at the level of county and city for crime and jail population impacts and at the level of the state for prison population impacts. To estimate these effects we aim to do difference-in-difference type analyses. The main objectives of this project are to provide a rapid analysis of these impacts on crime and corrections populations to be completed prior to a possible future resurgence of the pandemic, and to share with policymakers rigorous analyses that will assist in informing their decisions in dealing with the crisis.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

坊间新闻报道清楚地表明，新冠肺炎疫情正在对美国的犯罪以及监狱人口产生深远影响。大多数犯罪的短期减少与各种基于机会的犯罪理论相一致，即街头和光顾酒吧等场所的人更少。关于家庭暴力增加的报道与基于机会的理论以及基于紧张的理论相一致。然而，从长远来看，随着人们受到更大的经济影响，报告的犯罪减少趋势可能会自行逆转。在这次大流行期间，当地监狱和监狱的限制准入和加速释放对这些设施内的犯罪和感染率的影响也是未知的，并具有政策意义。将在县和市两级对犯罪和监狱人口影响进行分析，并在州一级对监狱人口影响进行分析。为了估计这些影响，我们的目标是进行差异型分析。该项目的主要目标是提供对犯罪和惩戒人群的这些影响的快速分析，以便在未来大流行可能卷土重来之前完成，并与政策制定者分享严格的分析，这些分析将有助于他们在应对危机时做出决策。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Changes in Crime Rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic

• DOI: 10.1080/2330443x.2022.2071369
• 发表时间: 2022-12-31
• 期刊: STATISTICS AND PUBLIC POLICY
• 影响因子: 1.6
• 作者: Meyer, Mikaela;Hassafy, Ahmed;Nagin, Daniel S.
• 通讯作者: Nagin, Daniel S.