Improving the Accuracy of Forecasts: A Process InterventionCombining Social Judgment Analysis and Group Facilitation

大量的经验证据表明，群体在判断任务上很少表现得像他们最好的成员那样好。为了解决这一问题，开发了一个群体决策支持系统(GDSS)，该系统结合了一些技术，以减少群体在进行集体判断时所面临的交互过程问题和认知处理问题。对GDS的初步评估表明，这一过程使小组在认知冲突任务中的表现明显好于他们最有能力的成员。然而，实验条件不能充分代表环境条件，不能保证对结果进行广泛推广。本研究通过利用管理决策者经常面临的判断任务，提高GDSS的质量，增加参与者的积极性，扩展了以往的工作。在研究的初始阶段，将开发两个用于实验的专家预测任务，并将聘请和培训专业辅导员来正确应用该过程。下一步，将进行一项实验，涉及24个五人小组。为了确保参与者有动力表现良好，他们将根据小组判断的质量获得不同的报酬。在研究的最后阶段，过程干预将被引入几个组织环境。

Considerable empirical evidence suggests that groups seldom do as well as their best members on judgement tasks. To address this problem, a Group Decision Support System (GDSS) has been developed that incorporates techniques for reducing both the problems with interaction processes and the problems with cognitive processing that groups face when making collective judgements. A preliminary evaluation of this GDSS demonstrated that the process enabled groups to perform significantly better than their most capable members on cognitive conflict tasks. However, experimental conditions were not sufficiently representative of environmental conditions to warrant broad generalization of the results. This research extends the previous work by using judgment tasks frequently faced by managerial decision makers, improving the quality of the GDSS, and increasing the motivation of the participants., In the initial phase of the study, two expert forecasting tasks will be developed for use in the experiment and professional facilitators will be hired and trained to apply the process correctly. Next, an experiment, involving 24 five-member groups, will be conducted. To ensure that participants are motivated to perform well, they will be paid differentially according to the quality of their group judgments. In the final phase of study, the process intervention will be introduced into several organizational settings.