Improving the Accuracy of Forecasts: A Process InterventionCombining Social Judgment Analysis and Group Facilitation

提高预测的准确性：结合社会判断分析和团体促进的过程干预

• 批准号: 9122447
• 负责人: John Rohrbaugh
• 金额: $ 9.97万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Albany
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-06-01 至 1994-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9122447&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Improving; Accuracy; Forecasts; Process; InterventionCombining

Considerable empirical evidence suggests that groups seldom do as well as their best members on judgement tasks. To address this problem, a Group Decision Support System (GDSS) has been developed that incorporates techniques for reducing both the problems with interaction processes and the problems with cognitive processing that groups face when making collective judgements. A preliminary evaluation of this GDSS demonstrated that the process enabled groups to perform significantly better than their most capable members on cognitive conflict tasks. However, experimental conditions were not sufficiently representative of environmental conditions to warrant broad generalization of the results. This research extends the previous work by using judgment tasks frequently faced by managerial decision makers, improving the quality of the GDSS, and increasing the motivation of the participants., In the initial phase of the study, two expert forecasting tasks will be developed for use in the experiment and professional facilitators will be hired and trained to apply the process correctly. Next, an experiment, involving 24 five-member groups, will be conducted. To ensure that participants are motivated to perform well, they will be paid differentially according to the quality of their group judgments. In the final phase of study, the process intervention will be introduced into several organizational settings.

大量经验证据表明， 以及他们最好的成员进行判断任务。 解决 针对这一问题，提出了一个群决策支持系统（GDSS）， 开发了一种技术， 交互过程的问题以及 群体在集体决策时面临的认知处理 判断。 对该GDSS的初步评价表明， 这一过程使群体的表现明显改善， 在认知冲突任务中表现得更好。 然而，实验条件并不充分。 环境条件的代表，以保证广泛的 结果的推广。 这项研究扩展了 以前的工作，通过使用经常面临的判断任务， 管理决策者，提高GDSS的质量， 提高参与者的积极性。 在 在研究的初始阶段，两个专家预测任务将 开发用于实验和专业促进者 将被雇用和培训，以正确地应用该过程。 接下来， 一项涉及24个五人小组的实验将在 进行。 确保参与者有动力去执行 嗯，他们将根据质量得到不同的报酬。 他们的群体判断。 在研究的最后阶段， 过程干预将被引入到几个 组织设置。