The Dynamics of Closed Basin Hydrology and Climate Variability

对人为气候变化的担忧强调了更好地了解水文极端事件（干旱和洪水）与长期气候变率之间关系的必要性。 建议使用封闭盆地湖泊及其盆地水文学来研究这些关系。 大盐湖盆地干旱且异质。 其气候信号与美国西部地区密切相关。最近对全球气候变率决定论来源（例如 ENSO）的气候研究非常富有成果。 此类研究通过创造性的数据解释以及反馈和交互建模而蓬勃发展。 拟议的研究也是本着同样的精神。 令人感兴趣的是识别持续的气候异常及其产生机制；流域总水文响应和反馈；政权之间的过渡；它们对初始条件和参数以及强迫函数的动态变化的敏感性。 采用非线性动力系统视角。 提出了数据分析和系统识别的非参数方法。 提出了基于物理和数据的论据，证明湖泊-流域-气候耦合系统中混沌行为的可能性以及多种状态的存在。 提出了开发有限物理统计动态模型来研究系统敏感性。

The need for a better understanding of the relation between hydrologic extremes (droughts and floods) and long term climatic variability is underscored by concerns of anthropogenic climate change. Investigations into these relations using closed basin lakes and their basin hydrology are proposed. The Great Salt Lake basin is arid and heterogeneous. Its climatic signal is well correlated with the Western U.S. Recent climate research into sources of determinism (e.g. ENSO) in global climatic variability has been very fruitful. Such research has blossomed through creative data interpretation, and modeling of feedbacks and interactions. The proposed research is in the same spirit. On interest is the identification of persistent climatic anomalies, their generating regimes; the aggregate basin hydrologic response and feedbacks; transitions between regimes; their sensitivity to initial conditions and parameters, and to dynamic changes in forcing functions. A nonlinear dynamical systems perspective is adopted. Nonparametric methods for data analysis and systgm identification are proposed. Physical and data based arguments for the possibility of chaotic behavior in the coupled lake-basin-climate system, and the presence of multiple regimes are advanced. The development of finite physical-statistical-dynamic models to study system sensitivities is proposed.