Monetary Policy, Corporate Financial Structure and Economic Fluctuations

本研究项目旨在对货币政策传导的“借贷”渠道进行全面的实证评估。根据借贷观点，货币政策的重要性不仅在于它对交易余额的影响，还在于它对银行贷款供应的影响。银行贷款和其他形式的信贷，例如公开市场票据和贸易信贷，对某些借款人来说是不完美的替代品，这是存在一个独特借贷渠道的关键条件。换句话说，只有在一些借款人部分“依赖银行”的情况下，才可能存在一个独特的贷款渠道。本项目的贡献来自于对贷款观点的总体和横向影响的全面审查。利用汇总数据，研究人员检验了：1)货币政策是否确实可以左右贷款供应；2)贷款供应的这些变动是否反过来对资本货物和库存的投资产生有意义的影响。该项目使用微观数据来确定通常在衰退中出现的大规模库存波动是否可以归因于货币政策导致的贷款供应变化。该项目决定了在货币紧缩之后，依赖银行的企业削减库存的速度是否比依赖非银行的企业更快。微观数据也用于研究企业间贸易信贷扩展对货币冲击的响应性。

The goal of this research project is to provide a comprehensive empirical assessment of the "lending" channel of monetary policy transmission. According to the lending view, monetary policy matters not only because of its effect on transactions balances, but also because of its impact on the supply of bank loans. Critical to the existence of a distinct lending channel is the condition that bank loans and other forms of credit, e.g., open market paper and trade credit, be imperfect substitutes for some borrowers. In other words, there can only be a distinct lending channel if some borrowers are partially "bank dependent." The contribution of this project comes from a through examination of both the aggregate and cross-sectional implications of the lending view. Using aggregate data, the investigators test: 1) whether monetary policy can indeed move loan supply around; and 2) whether these movements in loan supply in turn have meaningful consequences for investment in capital goods and inventories. The project uses micro data to determine whether the large inventory swings typically seen in recessions can be attributed to monetary- policy-induced changes in loan supply. The project determines whether bank-dependent firms cut their inventories more sharply than do non-bank dependent firms in the wake of a monetary contraction. Micro data is also used to study the responsiveness of inter-firm trade credit extensions to monetary shocks.