A Physical Basis for Real-Time Debris Flow Warning Systems

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A field site in a debris flow source area will be instrumented with tensiometers and rainfall recording instruments with data being collected by a remote, real- time data logger configured to record a highly transient reponse. A saturated-unsaturated flow model will be calibrated and later used to measure effective stresses during heavy rainstorms, the influence of antecedent soil moisture, rainfall intensity and duration, and the distribution of hydraulic conductivity of the soil. The effective stress response, together with strength data, the volume change, and the stress- strain behavior of the soil, will be used to develop a model for rainfall-induced debris flow and landslides prediction and a real- time warning system. In areas prone to landslides and debris flows an enhanced capability for prediction and warning would increase safety of populations at risk.