An Examination of Theoretical Predictions of the Strength of Economic Forces.

对经济力量强度的理论预测的检验。

• 批准号: 9223175
• 负责人: David Levine
• 金额: $ 5.72万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-07-01 至 1995-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9223175&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Examination; Theoretical; Predictions; Strength; Economic

At times powerful governments seem to be seized by economic forces beyond their ability to control: during a twenty-four hour period, for example, the British government raised interest rates to astronomical levels, swearing under no circumstances to devalue the pound, only to do exactly that. At other times, seemingly minor tinkering with policy can unleash profound and unplanned change: the enormous changes in the former Soviet Union, for example, seem to have been triggered by relatively mild political reforms introduced by Gorbachev in the mid-eighties. Although it is not widely recognized, economic theory predicts that under certain circumstances economic forces will be overpoweringly strong, and at other times extremely weak and susceptible to manipulation. Indeed, the theory can make quantitative predictions about the strength of economic forces. To the extent that such predictions are correct, they are of great value, directing our attention to those types of problems and situations where policy can make a real difference. There are two broad goals of this research: first to use data from experimental economics to validate the theory, and second, to advance the theory to improve its predictive power in assessing situations where economic forces are weak. Experimental data in economics is extremely mixed: sometimes the theory predicts extremely well, and at other times strange anomalies occur, often changing with seemingly trivial modifications in experimental design. What has not been examined carefully is the extent to which the anomalies are correlated with the strength of economic forces involved. Our hypothesis is that the theory predicts well when economic forces are strong, and that it predicts poorly when economic forces are weak. This research plans to review a broad cross-section of economic experiments in an effort to determine whether the anomalies are due to the weakness of the economic forces. To the extent that they are, this validates the idea that current theory can assess the strength of economic forces in a useful way. Unfortunately, an implication of our hypothesis is that predictions made by theory will be weakest exactly when the consequences of policy changes will be most profound. Many economists feel that under these circumstances, the ability of individuals to learn and adapt plays an important role. (This is clearly the case in the changes unfolding in the former Soviet Union.) The second major component of this research is to examine the theoretical consequences of learning, and the types of predictions such a theory makes. The goal is to develop useful mathematical approximations for making quantitative predictions.

有时，强大的政府似乎被经济力量所控制 超出了他们的控制能力：在24小时内， 例如，英国政府提高利率， 天文水平，发誓在任何情况下都不会贬值， 磅，只是为了做到这一点。 在其他时候，看似微不足道 对政策的修修补补可能会引发深远的、计划外的变化： 例如，前苏联的巨大变化似乎 是由相对温和的政治改革引发的 戈尔巴乔夫在80年代中期提出的。 虽然没有得到广泛认可，但经济理论预测， 在某些情况下，经济力量将压倒一切， 强大，在其他时候非常脆弱，易受影响， 操纵 事实上，该理论可以做出定量预测 经济力量的力量。 只要这些 预测是正确的，它们具有很大的价值，指导我们的 注意那些类型的问题和情况， 能带来真实的改变 这有两个广泛的目标 研究：首先使用实验经济学的数据来验证 第二，推进理论创新， 在评估经济力量 弱. 经济学中的实验数据极其复杂：有时， 理论预测得非常好，有时又很奇怪 异常现象时有发生，经常伴随着看似微不足道的变化 修改实验设计。 什么没有被检查 仔细是异常的程度与 所涉及的经济力量的强度。 我们的假设是 当经济力量强大时，该理论预测得很好， 当经济力量薄弱时，它的预测效果很差。 本研究 计划审查一个广泛的经济实验的横截面， 努力确定异常是否是由于 的经济力量。 在某种程度上，这 验证了当前理论可以评估 经济力量以一种有益的方式。 不幸的是，我们假设的一个含义是， 理论所产生的影响最弱的时候， 政策变化将是最深刻的。 许多经济学家认为， 在这种情况下，个人学习和 适应起着重要的作用。 (This很明显， 前苏联的变化）。 第二主 这项研究的一个组成部分是研究理论 学习的后果，以及预测的类型， 理论使。 我们的目标是发展有用的数学 用于进行定量预测的近似值。