Asesssing and Improving Theoretical Predictions of the Strength of Economic Forces

小行星9320695 有时，强大的政府似乎会被超出其控制能力的经济力量所控制：例如，在24小时内，英国政府将利率提高到天文数字的水平，发誓在任何情况下都不会让磅贬值，但实际上就是这样做的。 在其他时候，对政策进行看似微不足道的修修补补，就能引发深远的、计划外的变化：例如，前苏联的巨大变化似乎是由戈尔巴乔夫在80年代中期推行的相对温和的政治改革引发的。 该项目开发和实验测试了一个严格的理论，对经济力量的强度进行定量预测。 在某种程度上，这些预测是正确的，它们具有很大的价值，可以将注意力引向那些政策可以发挥真实的作用的问题和情况。 本课题利用实验经济学的数据来验证该理论，并提高该理论在评估经济力量极其薄弱的情况（如前苏联正在发生的变化）时的预测能力。

9320695 Levine At times powerful governments seem to be seized by economic forces beyond their ability to control: during a twenty-four hour period, for example, the British government raised interest rates to astronomical levels, swearing under no circumstances to devalue the pound, only to do exactly that. At other times, seemingly minor tinkering with policy can unleash profound and unplanned change: the enormous changes in the former Soviet Union, for example, seem to have been triggered by relatively mild political reforms introduced by Gorbachev in the mid- eighties. This project develops and experimentally tests a rigorous theory that makes quantitative predictions about the strength of economic forces. To the extent that such predictions are correct, they are of great value, directing attention to those types of problems and situations where policy can make a real difference. This project uses data from experimental economics to validate the theory and improves the predictive power of the theory in assessing situations where economic forces are extremely weak, such as the case with the changes unfolding in the former Soviet Union.