Capital Utilization and Policy Reform in Dynamic EquilibriumEconomics

动态均衡经济学中的资本利用与政策改革

• 批准号: 9224440
• 负责人: Thomas Cooley
• 金额: $ 17.33万
• 依托单位: University of Rochester
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-02-15 至 1995-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9224440&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Capital; Utilization; Policy; Reform; Dynamic

Modern business cycle theory starts with the view that growth and fluctuations are not distinct phenomena to be studied using separate models. The first part of this project focuses on significant differences found in production data between the properties of output variation at the individual plant level and output variation at the aggregate level. This project constructs a general equilibrium model economy that is consistent with the features of long run growth observed in aggregate time series, but in which production takes place at individual plants that operate in a manner consistent with the micro evidence. An aggregate technology is derived that differs from the Cobb- Douglas production function assumed in standard models in which there are no distinctions between output fluctuations at the level of the plant, the firm or the aggregate. The project studies the properties of the aggregate fluctuations exhibited by the model and compares them with the cyclical properties of a standard real business cycle model. This research promises both methodological and substantive contributions to our understanding of economic growth. Methodologically it improves the microeconomic foundations of the basic model of economic growth. Substantively, it improves our understanding of the way different micro-level technologies influence the variability and the level of economic growth. This basic research eventually could prove significant for the scientific credibility and the accuracy of studies of the long- term consequences for economic growth of technologies for mitigating global environmental change. The second part of the project explores the welfare consequences of economic policy reforms in dynamic general equilibrium models. A "base policy" is derived by calibrating the model to features of actual policies. For the U.S., this means heavy reliance on capital and income taxation. The next step is to evaluate policy changes from this base regime. Examples include a shift from capital income taxation to labor or consumption taxation, a shift to heavier reliance on inflation taxation, and how the government responds in periods of high government consumption (such as wars) or periods of bad technology shocks such as an unexpected increase in energy costs. This research will sharpen our understanding of the welfare gains associated with policy reforms that involve moving from existing policies to optimal or plausible sub-optimal policies.

现代经济周期理论认为，增长和波动并不是需要使用单独模型来研究的不同现象。 该项目的第一部分重点关注生产数据中单个工厂层面的产出变化特性与总体层面的产出变化特性之间的显着差异。 该项目构建了一个一般均衡模型经济，该模型与总体时间序列中观察到的长期增长特征一致，但其中生产是在各个工厂进行的，其运行方式与微观证据一致。 导出的聚合技术不同于标准模型中假设的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数，在标准模型中，工厂、公司或聚合水平的产出波动之间没有区别。 该项目研究了该模型所表现出的总体波动的特性，并将其与标准实际经济周期模型的周期性特性进行比较。 这项研究有望为我们理解经济增长做出方法论和实质性贡献。 从方法论上讲，它改善了经济增长基本模式的微观经济基础。 从本质上讲，它提高了我们对不同微观技术影响经济增长变化和水平的方式的理解。 这项基础研究最终可能对缓解全球环境变化技术对经济增长的长期影响的科学可信度和准确性具有重要意义。 该项目的第二部分探讨动态一般均衡模型中经济政策改革的福利后果。 “基本政策”是通过根据实际政策的特征校准模型而得出的。 对于美国来说，这意味着严重依赖资本税和所得税。 下一步是评估这一基本制度的政策变化。 例子包括从资本所得税转向劳动税或消费税、转向更加依赖通货膨胀税，以及政府在政府高消费时期（例如战争）或糟糕的技术冲击时期（例如能源成本意外增加）如何应对。 这项研究将加深我们对与政策改革相关的福利收益的理解，政策改革涉及从现有政策转向最优或看似合理的次优政策。