Political Economy and the Dynamics of Party Support in Contemporary Britain

在过去的二十年里，不断变化的知识潮流和 现实世界的发展激发了人们对 客观经济条件的影响，如失业和 通货膨胀，以及对公众支持的主观经济看法 政党及其领导人的代表 民主国家。 然而，迄今为止， 未回答的问题，理论争议和经验 在经济对政党支持率的影响方面，分歧仍在继续。 这个项目通过测试多变量来解决重要的争论 模型使用每月的时间序列数据收集在大 1992-1997年英国。 主要的理论争议涉及公民是否 党的支持决定是基于：1）个人的评价 或国家经济状况，以及相关的 政府对这些情况的责任; 2）过去或将来- 导向的经济判断和相关的奖励意愿 或因好/改善或坏/恶化而惩罚执政党 经济业绩，或支持一方基于 对不同问题优先级的看法; 3）“冷计算” 或对经济信息的情绪反应。 同样重要的是 作为缔约方组成部分的缔约方识别 支助是由正在进行的经济业绩评价驱动的。 这个项目解决了这些理论问题和数据 局限性。 关于前者，学习的优势 英国政党在五年期间的支持率分别为：1）经济 对政党支持的影响应该是巨大的-经济是一个 一个公众长期关注的问题; 2）社会阶层的差异 可以描述对经济状况及其影响的反应 （3）多党制度有利于研究如何 政党制度背景影响政治经济和动态 支持反对党和执政党; 4） 经济并不完全是政治事件的变化组合，有些是 正在进行的政治进程的一部分， 出乎政治家和公众的意料，应该影响 政党支持的短期变动，包括政党 识别. 这项研究使用了现有问题的数据， 经济和政治变量，以及新的数据， 每月调查（1992年5月至1997年4月）增加的问题 由英国盖洛普组织。 通过添加问题， 现有的60个调查，这个具有成本效益的项目可以 产生关键变量和足够的时间点， 最高峰期间政党支持的综合时间序列分析 这是目前英国议会的宪法任期。 的 研究有望大大提高我们对 研究的关键问题。

During the past two decades, shifting intellectual currents and real-world developments have stimulated strong interest in the impact of objective economic conditions, such as unemployment and inflation, and subjective economic perceptions on public support for political parties and their leaders in representative democracies. To date, however, fundamental questions remain unanswered, and theoretical controversies and empirical disagreements continue over economic influences on party support. This project addresses important debates by testing multivariate models using monthly time series data to be gathered in Great Britain in the 1992-1997 period. Principal theoretical controversies involve whether citizens' party-support decisions are based on: 1) evaluations of personal or national economic conditions and, relatedly, attributions of government responsibility for such conditions; 2) past or future- oriented economic judgments and, relatedly, willingness to reward or punish governing parties for good/improving or bad/deteriorating economic performance, respectively, or to support a party based on perceptions of different issue priorities; 3) "cold calculations" or emotional reactions to economic information. Also important is the extent to which party identification as a component of party support is driven by ongoing economic performance evaluations. This project addresses such theoretical concerns and data limitations. Regarding the former, the advantages of studying British party support during a five-year period are: 1) economic effects on party support should be substantial - the economy is a matter of longstanding public concern; 2) social-class differences may characterize responses to economic conditions and their impact on party support; 3) the multiparty system facilitates studying how party-system context influences the political economy and dynamics of support for opposition as well as governing parties; 4) economics is not all a changing mix of political events, some being part of the ongoing political process and others being unanticipated by politicians and public alike, should influence short-term movements in party support, including party identification. The research uses data from existing questions about relevant economic and political variables, together with data from new questions added to monthly surveys (May 1992-April 1997) conducted by the British Gallup organization. By adding questions to existing ones in 60 surveys, this cost-effective project can produce the key variables and sufficient time point needed for aggregate-time series analyses of party support during the maximum constitutional term of the current British parliament. The research promises to substantially enhance our understanding of the key issues of the research.