RAPID - Russia, Ukraine and The Dynamics of Public Attitudes Towards U.S. and Global Security

这个项目研究了一个紧迫的、时间敏感的、有可能威胁到美国国家安全的话题。美国公众对不断加深的乌克兰危机和俄罗斯可能采取的其他侵略行动的反应，将对美国和全球安全产生重大影响。该项目将调查美国公众对乌克兰危机以及俄罗斯在东欧、中东和其他地区可能采取的行动的态度。认识到公众态度与外交政策的相关性日益增强，研究人员已经开始描绘影响公民在军事干预、经济制裁和人道主义救援工作方面决策的因素。然而，迄今为止，在检验重要理论观点方面的进展一直受到严重数据限制的制约。大多数调查影响稳定和公众舆论变化的力量的研究都依赖于汇总数据，从而限制了在个人层面解释正在发生的事情的能力。分析个人层面态度的有限研究通常依赖于为其他目的创建的数据，并且无法获得重要的解释变量。相比之下，本研究使用在美国成年人口的多波代表性全国小组调查中收集的数据来分析各种各样的理论动机假设，这些假设是关于影响公众对乌克兰危机、随后的事件和美国外交政策的态度的因素。测试的假设将侧重于理解基本的价值取向和人格特征、收益-成本计算、领导人形象和党派依恋提供的线索，以及道德考虑如何结合起来，推动人们对乌克兰危机及其后事件的反应，以及更普遍的外交政策态度。基于最近在认知心理学和实验经济学方面的工作，将整理最新可用的统计技术来调查这些因素影响的异质性来源。该项目将在未来12个月内对美国公众进行四次大型（N = 5000），具有代表性的全国小组调查。最近由英国经济和社会研究委员会（ESRC）资助的关于美国、英国和法国对叙利亚危机的反应以及这三个国家公众更普遍的外交政策态度的调查研究的基础上，拟议的研究将产生非常高质量、具有成本效益的科学研究。由此产生的多波调查数据集将提供所需的信息，用于在美俄关系以相应方式演变的时期，对美国公众外交政策态度的病因和动态进行复杂、前沿的多元分析。为了充分发挥该项目的影响力，所有调查数据将在实地调查完成后的三个月内通过广泛宣传的项目网站向学术界提供。主要研究结果将以论文形式呈现，提交给同行评议的主要期刊和一本书长度的手稿。这项研究将有助于专家和普通民众理解在国家安全和世界安全面临的重大威胁日益增加的情况下，对与俄罗斯关系和美国外交政策立场可能做出的其他反应。为了扩大其在学术界以外的影响，主要发现将通过项目网站上的图表和简短摘要文件，以及通过广泛访问的印刷和电子媒体的“专栏”和“博客”向非专业受众传达。

This project examines a pressing, time sensitive, topic with strong potential to threaten U.S. national security. How the U.S. public reacts to the deepening Ukraine crisis and other possible aggressive moves by Russia will have significant consequences for U.S. and global security. The project will investigate the dynamics of U.S. public attitudes towards the Ukraine crisis and other possible Russian actions in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere. Recognizing the growing relevance of public attitudes for foreign policy, researchers have begun to delineate factors shaping citizen decision-making about military intervention, economic sanctions and humanitarian relief efforts. To date, however, progress in testing important theoretical ideas has been constrained by serious data limitations. Most studies examining forces affecting stability and change in public opinion have relied on aggregate data, thereby restricting the ability to explain what is happening at the individual level. Limited research analyzing individual-level attitudes typically has relied on data created for other purposes and important explanatory variables are unavailable. In contrast, the present study uses data gathered in multi-wave representative national panel surveys of the U.S. adult population to analyze a wide variety of theoretically motivated hypotheses about factors affecting public attitudes regarding the Ukraine crisis, ensuing events, and U.S. foreign policy more generally. Hypotheses tested will focus on understanding how basic value orientations and personality characteristics, benefit-cost calculations, cues provided by leader images and partisan attachments, and moral considerations combine to drive reactions to the Ukraine crisis and subsequent events as well as foreign-policy attitudes more generally. Building on recent work in cognitive psychology and experimental economics, newly available statistical techniques will be marshaled to investigate sources of heterogeneity in the effects of these factors. This project will conduct four large (N = 5000), representative national panel surveys of the American public over the next 12 months. Building on recent survey research funded by the U.K. Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) on American, British and French reactions to the Syrian crisis and more general foreign policy attitudes among the publics of these three countries, the proposed study will produce very high quality, cost effective, science. The resulting multi-wave survey data set will provide information needed for to conduct sophisticated, leading-edge multivariate analyses of the etiology and dynamics of the American public's foreign policy attitudes in a period when relations between the United States and Russia are evolving in consequential ways. To leverage the project's impact, all survey data will be made available to the scholarly community within three months after the completion of fieldwork via a widely publicized project website. Major findings will be presented in papers submitted for publication in leading peer-reviewed journals and in a book-length manuscript. This study will facilitate expert and lay understanding of possible alternative reactions towards relations with Russia and America's foreign policy stance more generally during a time when significant threats to national security and world security are growing. To magnify its impacts outside the scholarly community, key findings will be conveyed to non-specialist audiences via graphs and short summary documents on the project website, as well as by "columns" and "blogs" in widely accessed print and electronic media.