RAPID - Russia, Ukraine and The Dynamics of Public Attitudes Towards U.S. and Global Security

该项目研究了一个紧迫的，时间敏感的，有很大潜力威胁美国国家安全的话题。美国公众对乌克兰危机和俄罗斯其他可能的侵略行动的反应将对美国和全球安全产生重大影响。该项目将调查美国公众对乌克兰危机的态度以及俄罗斯在东欧、中东和其他地区可能采取的其他行动。认识到公众态度对外交政策的重要性日益增加，研究人员已开始描述影响公民在军事干预、经济制裁和人道主义救济工作方面决策的因素。然而，到目前为止，测试重要理论思想的进展受到严重数据限制的制约。大多数关于影响公众舆论稳定和变化的各种力量的研究都依赖于综合数据，从而限制了解释在个人一级发生的情况的能力。有限的研究分析个人层面的态度通常依赖于为其他目的而创建的数据，重要的解释变量不可用。相比之下，本研究使用多波代表性的美国全国小组调查中收集的数据成年人口来分析各种各样的理论动机的假设，这些假设是关于影响公众对乌克兰危机的态度的因素，随后的事件，以及美国更普遍的外交政策。 测试的假设将侧重于理解基本价值取向和个性特征、收益成本计算、领导人形象和党派依恋提供的线索以及道德考虑如何结合联合收割机来推动对乌克兰危机和后续事件的反应以及更普遍的外交政策态度。 在认知心理学和实验经济学的最新工作的基础上，新的可用的统计技术将被编组来调查这些因素的影响异质性的来源。 该项目将在未来12个月内对美国公众进行四次大型（N = 5000）代表性国家小组调查。 基于最近由英国资助的调查研究，经济和社会研究理事会（ESRC）对美国，英国和法国对叙利亚危机的反应以及这三个国家的公众对外交政策的态度，拟议的研究将产生非常高质量，成本效益，科学。由此产生的多波调查数据集将提供所需的信息进行复杂的，领先的多变量分析的病因和动态的美国公众的外交政策的态度在一个时期，美国和俄罗斯之间的关系正在演变的结果。为了发挥项目的影响，所有调查数据将在实地工作完成后三个月内通过一个广为宣传的项目网站提供给学术界。主要研究结果将在提交给领先的同行评审期刊发表的论文和一本书长的手稿中介绍。 这项研究将有助于专家和普通人了解在国家安全和世界安全面临的重大威胁日益增加的情况下，对与俄罗斯关系和美国外交政策立场的可能替代反应。 为了扩大其在学术界以外的影响，将通过项目网站上的图表和简短摘要文件，以及通过广泛访问的印刷和电子媒体上的“专栏”和“博客”，向非专业受众传达主要调查结果。

This project examines a pressing, time sensitive, topic with strong potential to threaten U.S. national security. How the U.S. public reacts to the deepening Ukraine crisis and other possible aggressive moves by Russia will have significant consequences for U.S. and global security. The project will investigate the dynamics of U.S. public attitudes towards the Ukraine crisis and other possible Russian actions in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere. Recognizing the growing relevance of public attitudes for foreign policy, researchers have begun to delineate factors shaping citizen decision-making about military intervention, economic sanctions and humanitarian relief efforts. To date, however, progress in testing important theoretical ideas has been constrained by serious data limitations. Most studies examining forces affecting stability and change in public opinion have relied on aggregate data, thereby restricting the ability to explain what is happening at the individual level. Limited research analyzing individual-level attitudes typically has relied on data created for other purposes and important explanatory variables are unavailable. In contrast, the present study uses data gathered in multi-wave representative national panel surveys of the U.S. adult population to analyze a wide variety of theoretically motivated hypotheses about factors affecting public attitudes regarding the Ukraine crisis, ensuing events, and U.S. foreign policy more generally. Hypotheses tested will focus on understanding how basic value orientations and personality characteristics, benefit-cost calculations, cues provided by leader images and partisan attachments, and moral considerations combine to drive reactions to the Ukraine crisis and subsequent events as well as foreign-policy attitudes more generally. Building on recent work in cognitive psychology and experimental economics, newly available statistical techniques will be marshaled to investigate sources of heterogeneity in the effects of these factors. This project will conduct four large (N = 5000), representative national panel surveys of the American public over the next 12 months. Building on recent survey research funded by the U.K. Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) on American, British and French reactions to the Syrian crisis and more general foreign policy attitudes among the publics of these three countries, the proposed study will produce very high quality, cost effective, science. The resulting multi-wave survey data set will provide information needed for to conduct sophisticated, leading-edge multivariate analyses of the etiology and dynamics of the American public's foreign policy attitudes in a period when relations between the United States and Russia are evolving in consequential ways. To leverage the project's impact, all survey data will be made available to the scholarly community within three months after the completion of fieldwork via a widely publicized project website. Major findings will be presented in papers submitted for publication in leading peer-reviewed journals and in a book-length manuscript. This study will facilitate expert and lay understanding of possible alternative reactions towards relations with Russia and America's foreign policy stance more generally during a time when significant threats to national security and world security are growing. To magnify its impacts outside the scholarly community, key findings will be conveyed to non-specialist audiences via graphs and short summary documents on the project website, as well as by "columns" and "blogs" in widely accessed print and electronic media.