NSF RAPID - Economic Risks, Immigration Threats and Public Attitudes After Britain's Brexit Referendum

这个项目的动机是观察到复兴的民粹主义在包括美国和英国在内的主要成熟民主国家已经成为一股非常重要的力量。新民粹主义的一个重要影响发生在2016年6月23日，当时英国在全民公投中决定离开欧盟。该项目侧重于公众对欧盟成员身份的经济、安全和文化成本和收益的态度的性质、来源和后果，特别关注对移民的态度。该项目还将收集有关脱欧风险的感知数据，对“脱欧”的态度对2017年6月8日大选投票的影响，以及对英国和欧盟随后“离婚”谈判的反应。英国历史性的脱欧决定引起了全球的关注，通过分析英国公众态度和政治行为的动态，拟议的项目将产生广泛的影响。随着英国和欧盟之间的脱欧谈判在未来一年展开，这些问题尤为重要。该项目还通过包括2005年伦敦恐怖袭击后首次使用的调查问题，研究了对恐怖主义的可能反应。该项目的所有数据和研究成果将以易于获取的形式免费提供给学者、学生、政策制定者、媒体评论员和非专业人士。该项目包括在英国进行的三个大型（N = 5000）全国小组调查。2017年6月8日英国大选前后将分别进行两次调查，第三次调查将于2018年春季进行。这三项调查将包括参与2016年6月英国脱欧公投前后进行的三次全国调查的大量受访者。由此产生的六波全国面板，已经完成了三波，促进了复杂的多元分析（例如，混合马尔可夫潜在类别和动态面板模型）的个人层面的态度和行为的动态兴趣及其驱动因素。通过复制自2004年以来进行的月度调查中提出的关键问题，新的调查还将为绘制相关公众态度在2016年6月23日历史性的英国脱欧公投前后14年期间的总体演变提供独特的杠杆。需要强调的是，拟议研究中提出的问题和收集的数据现在和将来都不会出现在英国选举研究或任何其他调查中。

This project is motivated by the observation that resurgent populism has become a highly consequential force in major mature democracies including the United States and the United Kingdom. One important effect of the new populism occurred on June 23rd, 2016 when the UK decided in a national referendum to leave the European Union. The project focuses on the nature, sources, and consequences of public attitudes towards the economic, security and cultural costs and benefits of EU membership, paying particular attention to attitudes towards immigration. The project also will gather data on the perceived risks of leaving the EU, the impact of attitudes towards "Brexit" on voting in the June 8, 2017 general election, and reactions to subsequent "divorce" negotiations between the UK and the EU. The United Kingdom's historic Brexit decision has attracted global attention and the proposed project will produce broad impacts through analysis of the dynamics of public attitudes and political behavior in the UK. These are particularly pertinent as the Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU unfold over the coming year. The project also examines possible responses to terrorism by including survey questions first used following the 2005 terrorist attacks on London. The project's all data and research findings will be made freely available in highly accessible form to scholars, students, policy makers, media commentators and laypersons. This project consists of three large (N = 5000) national panel surveys administered in the UK. Two surveys will be fielded before and after the June 8, 2017 UK general election, with the third conducted in spring 2018. The three surveys will include a large panel of respondents participating in three previous national surveys administered prior to and following the June 2016 Brexit referendum. The resulting six-wave national panel, with three waves already done, facilitates sophisticated multivariate analyses (e.g., mixed Markov latent class and dynamic panel models) of the individual-level dynamics of the attitudes and behaviors of interest and their drivers. By replicating key questions asked in monthly surveys conducted since 2004, the new surveys also will provide unique leverage for mapping the aggregate-level evolution of relevant public attitudes over the 14-year period preceding and following the historic June 23, 2016 Brexit vote. It bears emphasis that the questions asked and data gathered in the proposed study are not and will not be available in the British Election Study or any other surveys.