Complex Systems in Earth Sciences: Predictability, Mitigation and Reduction of Natural Hazards

9318646 Rundle国际社会已经认识到，通过系统的研究计划，设计出减少和减轻各种毁灭性自然灾害发生的方法是可能的（见附录）。最有希望的途径之一是开发在计算机中模拟这些物理过程的能力。最近的许多模型在很大程度上是非线性的，包括元胞自动机型或分形增长模型，因此可以在复杂系统理论工作者熟悉的框架中进行分析。此外，模型生成的灾害事件发生频率往往遵循幂律。虽然认识到这种新方法的重要性，但目前地球科学家通常不具备开发或分析这些模型所需的技能。此外，很明显，统计力学、应用数学和其他领域的许多工作者对这些非传统问题产生了浓厚的兴趣。因此，在诸如圣菲研究所所提供的跨学科专业环境中，对这些问题的模拟的开发和分析将进行得最为迅速。将在SFI举办一个讲习班来解决这些问题，并提供一个论坛，使地球科学家能够与开发模拟和分析复杂系统技术的物理学家和数学家进行互动。

9318646 Rundle It has been recognized by the international community that it may be possible, through programs of systematic study, to devise means to reduce and mitigate the occurrence of a variety of devastating natural hazards (see appendix). One of the most promising avenues of approach is to develop the capability to simulate these physical processes in the computer. Many of the recent models are nonlinear in significant ways, including cellular automata-type or fractal growth models, and can thus be analyzed in a framework familiar to workers in complex system theory. Moreover, it is often the case that the occurrence frequency of disaster events generated by the models follow power laws. While recognizing the importance of this new approach, at this time earth scientists do not generally possess the skills needed to develop or analyze these models. Moreover, it is clear that a variety of workers in statistical mechanics, applied mathematics, and other fields have developed significant interest in these nontraditional problems. The development and analysis of simulations for these problems would therefore proceed most expeditiously in an interdisciplinary professional setting such as that provided by the Santa Fe Institute. A workshop be held at SFI to address these issues, and to allow a forum in which earth scientists can interact with physicists and mathematicians developing techniques to simulate and analyze complex systems.