Doctoral Dissertation Research: Subjective Expectations of Employment, Earnings and Income

博士论文研究：就业、收入和收入的主观预期

• 批准号: 9321044
• 负责人: Charles Manski
• 金额: $ 1.21万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-03-01 至 1995-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9321044&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Subjective; Expectations

9321044 Manski For almost 50 years, national consumer surveys have elicited subjective reports of economic expectations. Although consumer confidence indexes are widely employed as leading indicators of aggregate economic activity, subjective expectations data are not looked upon favorably by most economic researchers. The rejection of these data can be partially attributed to the qualitative nature of the survey questions. The purpose of this project is to collect and analyze quantitative expectations data in order to open up new avenues of research on consumer behavior under uncertainty. The new survey questions were included in a national telephone survey of 617 households. Preliminary data analysis and interviewer comments suggest that respondents willingly provide sensible responses to these questions. These households will be re-interviewed and their responses will be analyzed to assess the predictive value of this information. This project is important because it will provide new data on the process of expectation formation and the predictive content of these forecasts. ***

9321044 Manski 近 50 年来，全国消费者调查引发了有关经济预期的主观报告。 尽管消费者信心指数被广泛用作总体经济活动的先行指标，但大多数经济研究人员并不看好主观预期数据。 这些数据的拒绝可部分归因于调查问题的定性性质。 该项目的目的是收集和分析定量预期数据，以开辟不确定性下消费者行为研究的新途径。 新的调查问题包含在对 617 个家庭进行的全国电话调查中。 初步数据分析和访谈员评论表明，受访者愿意对这些问题做出明智的回答。 这些家庭将接受重新访谈，并分析他们的回答，以评估该信息的预测价值。 这个项目很重要，因为它将提供有关预期形成过程和这些预测的预测内容的新数据。 ***