Doctoral Dissertation Research: Subjective Expectations of Employment, Earnings and Income

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9321044 Manski For almost 50 years, national consumer surveys have elicited subjective reports of economic expectations. Although consumer confidence indexes are widely employed as leading indicators of aggregate economic activity, subjective expectations data are not looked upon favorably by most economic researchers. The rejection of these data can be partially attributed to the qualitative nature of the survey questions. The purpose of this project is to collect and analyze quantitative expectations data in order to open up new avenues of research on consumer behavior under uncertainty. The new survey questions were included in a national telephone survey of 617 households. Preliminary data analysis and interviewer comments suggest that respondents willingly provide sensible responses to these questions. These households will be re-interviewed and their responses will be analyzed to assess the predictive value of this information. This project is important because it will provide new data on the process of expectation formation and the predictive content of these forecasts. ***