Identification Problems in the Social Sciences

计量经济学家早就发现， 问题分为统计和识别部分。 研究 识别试图描述可能的结论 如果研究人员有一个无限的样本， 尺寸 统计推断的研究试图描述 一般较弱的结论，可以得出一个样本， 积极但有限的大小。 统计和鉴定 问题以不同的方式限制了可能得出的结论 in empirical实证research研究. 统计问题最严重的时候是 可用的样本很小。 识别问题是最 当研究人员对种群知之甚少时， 在研究和抽样过程中， 人口 拟议的研究继续研究人员的 关于社会保护中的身份问题的工作方案 以理工科为重 计划开展四个项目：（1）继续研究 选择问题;（2）分析识别在 数据中存在的错误;（3）识别的研究 内源性社会效应;（4）调查使用 主观数据，以确定个人的期望。 该项目最令人兴奋和新颖的部分之一涉及 使用主观数据来确定个人期望。 区分客观和主观的决定因素 行为可能是最具挑战性的识别问题 面对社会科学家。 这当然是大多数人 显然将社会科学与自然科学分开， 分析单位不被认为拥有自由意志。 多年来，经济学家们一直在自我强加 禁止在实证分析中使用主观数据。 经济学家试图推断出 经济理论，即偏好和期望，几乎 完全来自实际选择的数据。 但是，经济学家不 知道他们是否在对偏好进行有效的推断， 基于不正确的预期假设的错误推断。 该项目开发的方法将允许经济学家 重新思考他们的研究惯例， 收集和分析关于期望的主观数据， 喜好

Econometricians have long found it useful to separate inferential problems into statistical and identification components. Studies of identification seek to characterize the conclusions that could be drawn if the researcher had available a sample of unlimited size. Studies of statistical inference seek to characterize the generally weaker conclusions that can be drawn given a sample of positive but finite size. Statistical and identification problems limit in distinct ways the conclusions that may be drawn in empirical research. Statistical problems are most severe when the available sample is small. Identification problems are most severe when the researcher knows little about the population under study and the sampling process yields only weak data on the population. The proposed research continues the investigator's program of work on identification problems in the social sciences. Four projects are planned: (1) continued research on the selection problem; (2) analysis of identification in the presence of errors in data; (3) study of identification of endogenous social effects; and (4) investigation of the use of subjective data to identify personal expectations. One of the most exciting and novel parts of the project involves the use of subjective data to identify personal expectations. Distinguishing the objective and subjective determinants of behavior may be the most challenging identification problem facing social scientists. It is certainly the problem that most clearly separates the social from the natural sciences, where the units of analysis are not thought of as possessing free will. For many years, economists have exercised a self-imposed prohibition on the use of subjective data in empirical analysis. Economists have sought to infer the subjective constructs of economic theory, namely preferences and expectations, almost entirely from data on actual choices. But, economists do not know whether they are making valid inferences on preferences or wrong inferences based on incorrect expectations assumptions. This project develops methods that will permit economists to rethink their research conventions and entertain seriously the collection and analysis of subjective data on expectations and preferences.