Identification and Decision

识别与决策

• 批准号: 0911181
• 负责人: Charles Manski
• 金额: $ 16.48万
• 依托单位: Northwestern University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0911181&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Identification; Decision

The investigator plans to continue his research on decision making in settings with partial identification of relevant population parameters. A major continuing theme is treatment choice with partial knowledge of treatment response. He also will continue his longstanding program of research on identification per se. This research on identification is deliberately conservative. The traditional way to cope with sampling processes that partially identify population parameters has been to combine the available data with assumptions strong enough to yield point identification. Such assumptions often are not well motivated, and empirical researchers often debate their validity. Conservative analysis enables researchers to learn from the available data without imposing untenable assumptions. It enables establishment of a domain of consensus among researchers who may hold disparate beliefs about what assumptions are appropriate. It also makes plain the limitations of the available data. The analysis by the investigator of decision making is similarly conservative. His research shows how social planners and other decision makers can cope coherently with difficult problems of choice under ambiguity induced by identification problems and the necessity of statistical inference from sample data, without imposing untenable assumptions. This is achieved using well-established principles of statistical decision theory, particularly through application of the minimax-regret criterion.Broader Impacts: Many persistent public policy controversies reflect divergent beliefs about the effects of government policy on society. Such divergent beliefs are often manifest in dueling policy studies that use different analytical approaches or data sources to reach different policy conclusions. Each study may make sense in its own terms, each combining data with conjectures to draw logically valid conclusions. However, there may be no way to determine which study (if either) makes realistic conjectures and which (if either) draws empirically correct conclusions. The conservative approach by the investigator to empirical inference and social planning can enable the public to better evaluate the credibility of existing policy studies, enhance the credibility of future policy research, and improve the quality of policymaking

研究者计划在部分确定相关人群参数的情况下继续进行决策研究。一个主要的持续主题是治疗反应的部分知识的治疗选择。他还将继续他长期以来对身份本身的研究计划。 这项关于认同的研究是刻意保守的。科普部分确定总体参数的抽样过程的传统方法是将现有数据与强到足以产生点识别的假设联合收割机结合起来。这些假设往往动机不强，实证研究人员经常对其有效性进行辩论。保守分析使研究人员能够从现有数据中学习，而不会强加站不住脚的假设。它使研究人员能够建立一个共识的领域，这些研究人员可能对什么样的假设是合适的持有不同的信念。它还清楚地表明了现有数据的局限性。 研究者对决策的分析也同样保守。他的研究表明，社会规划者和其他决策者如何能够在识别问题引起的模糊性和从样本数据进行统计推断的必要性的情况下，连贯地科普困难的选择问题，而不强加站不住脚的假设。这是实现使用完善的统计决策理论的原则，特别是通过应用的最小最大遗憾criterion.Broader影响：许多持久的公共政策的争议反映了不同的信念对政府政策对社会的影响。这种不同的信念往往表现在使用不同的分析方法或数据来源得出不同的政策结论的政策研究中。每一项研究都有其自身的意义，每一项研究都将数据与图表相结合，得出逻辑上有效的结论。然而，可能没有办法确定哪个研究（如果有的话）做出了现实的假设，哪个（如果有的话）得出了经验上正确的结论。研究者对经验推断和社会规划的保守态度，可以使公众更好地评价现有政策研究的可信度，增强未来政策研究的可信度，提高决策质量