Prediction of Design Wind Speeds by Extreme Value EstimationProcedures

通过极值估计程序预测设计风速

• 批准号: 9411642
• 负责人: Ross Corotis
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Johns Hopkins University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-10-15 至 1995-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9411642&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Prediction; Design; Wind; Speeds; Extreme

9411642 Corotis Support is provided to continue research on extreme value estimation procedures for the prediction of design wind speeds. During the first phase several available techniques were tested and compared with some methods performing better than others, e.g., for data from Gumbel and reverse Weibull distributions the threshold approach performed better than the epochal approach but the reverse was true for data from a normal distribution. During the second phase of the research statistical analyses of data taken from maximum daily fastest mile speeds and Monte Carlo simulations based on the probabilistic models derived from these analyses will be used. The objectives of the work are: 1) to rank the performances of the Cumulative Mean Excedance and the de Haan-Dekkers-Einmahl estimation methods; 2) to account for the seasonality effects; 3) to verify whether more extreme speed data sets are in fact better fitted by reverse Weibull than by Gumbel distributions; and 4) to estimate confidence levels for "peaks over threshold" estimates of extreme winds based on short records. Long term wind speed data from United States weather stations will be used to compare epochal and threshold methods and to refine procedures for determining design wind speeds. The results from this work will improve the survivability of structures built in extreme wind areas and thus the safety of local population. ***

9411642 Corotis提供支持，以继续研究用于预测设计风速的极值估计程序。 在第一阶段，对几种可用的技术进行了测试，并与一些方法进行了比较，其中一些方法的效果优于其他方法，例如，对于来自Gumbel和反向Weibull分布的数据，阈值方法比epochal方法表现得更好，但对于来自正态分布的数据，情况相反。 在研究的第二阶段，将使用对每日最快英里速度数据的统计分析和基于这些分析得出的概率模型的蒙特卡罗模拟。 本文的主要目的是：（1）对累积平均超额和deHaan-Dekkers-Einmahl估计方法的性能进行排序;（2）考虑季节性效应;（3）验证反向威布尔分布是否比Gumbel分布更能拟合更极端的速度数据集;以及4）基于短记录来估计极端风的“超过阈值的峰值”估计的置信水平。 美国气象站的长期风速数据将用于比较历元法和阈值法，并改进确定设计风速的程序。 这项工作的结果将提高在极端风区建造的结构的生存能力，从而提高当地居民的安全。 ***