Estimation of Extreme Probability Distribution Tails: Application to Extreme Wind Speeds

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The project will use extreme value statistical techniques to study the upper tail distribution of wind speed data. The estimation of the tails of probability distributions of extreme events is a theoretical and engineering problem of significance. Hurricanes, tornadoes and other high winds episodes produce every year loss of life and substantive economic and structural damages which could be curtailed if prediction of extremes would be enhanced. The purpose of this work is to improve the extreme wind prediction capabilities and to close the gap between the observed damage statistics and those obtained by using conventional distribution calibration procedures. Current design winds speeds are based on the analysis of few decades of weather service data at about 100 weather stations. An updated data base will be used to test the hypothesis that the distribution has a limited upper tail. The physical basis for the assumptions made will be tested, followed by a calibration of conditional exceedance and validation of this statistical approach.