Lower Probability Models for Frequentist Phenomena

频率现象的较低概率模型

• 批准号: 9413001
• 负责人: Terrence Fine
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Cornell University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-08-01 至 1997-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9413001&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Lower; Probability; Models; Frequentist; Phenomena

Dr. Fine is continuing his research into the development of lower probability based on models for frequentist phenomena and is continuing to explore the implications of such models, particularly as they contrast with analyses of such phenomena by conventional probability. His previous research allowed him to break a bond between convergence of relative frequencies and hypotheses of stationarity. An example of a stationarity hypothesis is the common assumption in analysis of frequentist phenomena of successive trials being independent and identically distributed. In this new research, Dr. Fine is examining some forms of evidence that would lead to the adoption of lower probability models; continuing to develop an ability to construct lower probability models to conform with the evidence; and strengthening the calculus by adoption and study of an appropriate notion of lower expectation. Lower expectation can provide entry to associated concepts of conditioning and independence and to the rudiments of statistical decision theory. It is hoped that this research will encourage the broadening of the scope of probabilistic reasoning by exploring alternatives to conventional probability with some of the vigor with which the various interpretations of probability have been discussed.

Fine博士继续研究基于频率论现象模型的低概率发展，并继续探索这些模型的含义，特别是当它们与传统概率分析这些现象时。 他以前的研究使他打破了相对频率收敛和平稳性假设之间的联系。 平稳性假设的一个例子是在分析连续试验独立同分布的频率论现象时的常见假设。 在这项新研究中，Fine博士正在研究一些可能导致采用低概率模型的证据形式;继续发展构建低概率模型以符合证据的能力;并通过采用和研究适当的低期望概念来加强微积分。 较低的期望值可以提供进入条件和独立性的相关概念和统计决策理论的基础。 人们希望，这项研究将鼓励扩大概率推理的范围，探索替代传统的概率与一些活力与概率的各种解释进行了讨论。