Mathematical Sciences: Conference on Multiple Decision Theory and Related Topics

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Re: DMS 95-00061, "Conference on Multiple Decision Theory and Related Topics" PI: James Berger Abstract: During June 8-12, 1995, a conference on Multiple Decision Theory and related topics will be held at Purdue University. The conference will consist of two parts, a traditional conference of invited and contributed talks in multiple decision theory, and an intensive workshop on the recent approach to multiple model selection called "intrinsic Bayes factors." The traditional part of the conference will consist of 27 invited talks by leaders in the field, including talks aimed at assessing the current status of research in the area and assessing future needs. The workshop phase will involve approximately 20 active researchers in development of intrinsic Bayes factors, a very recent and promising methodology which is applicable to virtually any model selection problem, nested or nonnested, without requiring asymptotics. The workshop phase will adopt a non-traditional framework that encourages discussion of unsolved problems, rather than solely emphasizing presentation of recent research. Multiple decision theory is concerned with situations in which there are two or more populations, and it is desired to select the "better" populations, rank order the populations, or make other decisions involving the comparison of populations. This type of scenario is common to a huge variety of applied problems in virtually all areas of statistical application. The area has seen a great deal of activity in recent years, and a conference on the subject involving the leaders in the field is very timely. The workshop phase of the conference will bring together a smaller group of researchers to study optimal ways to select among multiple statistical models. Model selection is typically the most important phase of a statistical analysis, and the new methodology that is to be discussed is extremely promising in terms of its ability to automatically select the best models. Level of Effort: The level of effort in the conference is being increased, by inclusion of the intensive workshop on intrinsic Bayes factors. The possibility of adding this workshop arose when it was realized that many of the active researchers on intrinsic Bayes factors would be at the Multiple Decision Theory conference; extending the conference for two days to incorporate this workshop thus seemed scientifically and financially wise. Budget Explanation: The request for $10,000 from NSF is not being changed. Approximately $5000 will, however, be used for the expenses of those attending the intensive workshop. (These individuals will, of course, also be participating in the earlier portion of the conference.) Additional expenses incurred by the increased level of effort will be met by Purdue University.