Ensemble Forecasting of Convective Weather Events Using a Mesoscale Model

使用中尺度模型对对流天气事件进行集合预报

• 批准号: 9501532
• 负责人: Thomas Warner
• 金额: $ 26.1万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-09-01 至 1999-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9501532&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Ensemble; Forecasting; Convective; Weather; Events

9501532 Warner Due to nonlinearities in the physics of the atmosphere, deterministic predictions of the atmosphere have their limitations. A technique known as ensemble forecasting is believed to provide a mechanism for improving forecasts of the atmosphere. Ensemble forecasting involves running a series of numerical predictions by changing, within reason, model initial conditions or model physics. The objective is to provide forecasts that define the range of possible solutions. These techniques have shown promise for forecast improvement. A joint project between the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies and the University of Colorado is proposed with the objective to develop and test ensemble forecasting techniques for mesoscale models. The proposed research will focus upon the difficulties involved in accurately predicting mesoscale convective weather events. Three specific objectives of the research are: 1) to develop a technique to modify the mesoscale model initial conditions to define the ensemble group that maximizes the span of model solutions across the predictability phase space using a minimum number of simulations, while requiring that the ensemble initial conditions remain constrained to the error characteristics of the available observations; 2) to explore the results of this technique for both strongly and weakly forced large-scale environments; 3) to determine the applicability of using varying model physics in ensemble forecasting methods.. Knowledge gained from this study will provide necessary information on how to efficiently produce an ensemble forecast using a mesoscale model. It is anticipated that the model results also will provide some guidance on predicting the model skill for given convective weather events. ***

9501532华纳由于大气物理中的非线性，对大气的确定性预测有其局限性。一种被称为集合预报的技术被认为提供了一种改进大气预报的机制。集合预报涉及通过在合理范围内改变模式初始条件或模式物理来进行一系列数值预报。目标是提供预测，定义可能的解决方案的范围。这些技术已经显示出改进预测的前景。中尺度气象合作研究所和科罗拉多大学提出了一个联合项目，目的是开发和测试中尺度模式的集合预报技术。拟议的研究将侧重于准确预报中尺度对流天气事件所涉及的困难。这项研究的三个具体目标是：1)开发一种修改中尺度模式初始条件的技术，以定义使用最少数量的模拟来最大化模式解在可预报相空间中的跨度的集合，同时要求集合初始条件保持对可用观测的误差特征的约束；2)探索该技术在强强迫和弱强迫大尺度环境中的结果；3)确定在集合预报方法中使用变化的模式物理的适用性。从这项研究中获得的知识将为如何利用中尺度模式有效地产生集合预报提供必要的信息。预计模式结果还将为预测特定对流天气事件的模式技能提供一定的指导。***