Ensemble Forecasting of Convective Weather Events Using a Mesoscale Model
使用中尺度模型对对流天气事件进行集合预报
基本信息
- 批准号:9501532
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 26.1万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Continuing Grant
- 财政年份:1995
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:1995-09-01 至 1999-08-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
9501532 Warner Due to nonlinearities in the physics of the atmosphere, deterministic predictions of the atmosphere have their limitations. A technique known as ensemble forecasting is believed to provide a mechanism for improving forecasts of the atmosphere. Ensemble forecasting involves running a series of numerical predictions by changing, within reason, model initial conditions or model physics. The objective is to provide forecasts that define the range of possible solutions. These techniques have shown promise for forecast improvement. A joint project between the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies and the University of Colorado is proposed with the objective to develop and test ensemble forecasting techniques for mesoscale models. The proposed research will focus upon the difficulties involved in accurately predicting mesoscale convective weather events. Three specific objectives of the research are: 1) to develop a technique to modify the mesoscale model initial conditions to define the ensemble group that maximizes the span of model solutions across the predictability phase space using a minimum number of simulations, while requiring that the ensemble initial conditions remain constrained to the error characteristics of the available observations; 2) to explore the results of this technique for both strongly and weakly forced large-scale environments; 3) to determine the applicability of using varying model physics in ensemble forecasting methods.. Knowledge gained from this study will provide necessary information on how to efficiently produce an ensemble forecast using a mesoscale model. It is anticipated that the model results also will provide some guidance on predicting the model skill for given convective weather events. ***
小行星9501532 由于大气物理的非线性,大气的确定性预测有其局限性。 一种被称为集合预报的技术被认为提供了一种改进大气预报的机制。 包围预报涉及通过合理地改变模型初始条件或模型物理条件来运行一系列数值预报。 其目的是提供预测,确定可能的解决方案的范围。 这些技术已显示出改善预测的前景。 中尺度气象学研究合作研究所和科罗拉多大学提出了一个联合项目,目的是开发和测试中尺度模式的集合预报技术。 拟议的研究将集中在准确预报中尺度对流天气事件所涉及的困难。 研究的三个具体目标是:1)发展一种技术来修改中尺度模式初始条件,以定义集合组,该集合组使用最少数量的模拟来最大化可预报相空间上模式解的跨度,同时要求集合初始条件保持约束于可用观测的误差特性; 2)探索这种技术在强和弱强迫大尺度环境下的结果; 3)确定在集合预报方法中使用变化模式物理的适用性。 从这项研究中获得的知识将提供必要的信息,如何有效地产生集合预报使用中尺度模式。 预计模式的结果也将提供一些指导预测模式的技能,为给定的对流天气事件。 ***
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Thomas Warner其他文献
Probiotic Effects of Feeding Heat-Killed <em>Lactobacillus acidophilus</em> and <em>Lactobacillus casei</em> to <em>Candida albicans</em>-Colonized Immunodeficient Mice
- DOI:
10.4315/0362-028x-63.5.638 - 发表时间:
2000-05-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:
- 作者:
R.Doug Wagner;Carey Pierson;Thomas Warner;Margaret Dohnalek;Milo Hilty;Edward Balish - 通讯作者:
Edward Balish
The cardio-oncology multidisciplinary team: beyond the basics
- DOI:
10.1186/s40959-025-00369-8 - 发表时间:
2025-07-26 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.200
- 作者:
Joshua D. Bennetts;Trent D. Williams;Craig J. Beavers;Heather N. Moore;Cameron Robson;Thomas Warner;Susan Dent;Aaron L. Sverdlov;Doan T.M. Ngo - 通讯作者:
Doan T.M. Ngo
Testing a device to replace the leech for treating venous congestion.
测试一种替代水蛭治疗静脉充血的装置。
- DOI:
10.1001/archfaci.5.1.70 - 发表时间:
2003 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
G. Hartig;N. Connor;Thomas Warner;D. Heisey;M. Sarmadi;Michael L Conforti - 通讯作者:
Michael L Conforti
Formation of Enol Ethers by Radical Decarboxylation of α-Alkoxy β-Phenylthio Acids.
通过 α-烷氧基 β-苯硫酸的自由基脱羧形成烯醇醚。
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2019 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.6
- 作者:
A. Palanivel;S. Mubeen;Thomas Warner;N. Ahmed;D. Clive - 通讯作者:
D. Clive
Thomas Warner的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Thomas Warner', 18)}}的其他基金
UCL Neurodegenerative Disease Human Tissue Resource
伦敦大学学院神经退行性疾病人体组织资源
- 批准号:
MR/Y00440X/1 - 财政年份:2024
- 资助金额:
$ 26.1万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
UKDP: Integrated DEmentiA research environment (IDEA)
UKDP:综合痴呆症研究环境 (IDEA)
- 批准号:
MR/M02492X/1 - 财政年份:2015
- 资助金额:
$ 26.1万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Incorporating the Uncertainty of Atmosphere-Land Surface Interactions into Ensemble Forecasts
将大气-地表相互作用的不确定性纳入集合预报
- 批准号:
0130154 - 财政年份:2002
- 资助金额:
$ 26.1万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
The Assimilation of Data from Satellite Data Sources for Mesoscale Analyses in Support of SHEBA
卫星数据源数据同化用于支持 SHEBA 的中尺度分析
- 批准号:
9504300 - 财政年份:1995
- 资助金额:
$ 26.1万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Numerical Studies of the Interaction of Mesoscale Convective Systems With the Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Environment
中尺度对流系统与热带海洋-大气环境相互作用的数值研究
- 批准号:
9024434 - 财政年份:1991
- 资助金额:
$ 26.1万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
A Study of the Effect of a Time-Varying Moist Potential Vorticity on the Evolution of Conditional Symmetric Instability
时变湿位涡对条件对称不稳定性演化的影响研究
- 批准号:
9019010 - 财政年份:1991
- 资助金额:
$ 26.1万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Dynamic and Thermodynamic Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on Mesoscale Vortex Development
青藏高原对中尺度涡发展的动力和热力学效应
- 批准号:
8911626 - 财政年份:1989
- 资助金额:
$ 26.1万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Studies of the Requirements for the Numerical Simulations ofMesoscale Rainbands Forced by Conditional Symmetric Instability
条件对称不稳定性驱动的中尺度雨带数值模拟要求研究
- 批准号:
8716204 - 财政年份:1987
- 资助金额:
$ 26.1万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
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中尺度对流系统:概率预测和灰色地带的高档影响 (MCS:PRIME)
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Exploiting new observations and data assimilation techniques for improved forecasting of convective precipitation
利用新的观测和数据同化技术改进对流降水的预报
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- 批准号:
1222383 - 财政年份:2012
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1046081 - 财政年份:2011
- 资助金额:
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89688-2006 - 财政年份:2010
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Numerical simulation and forecasting of severe convective storms
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Criticality: A Theory for Understanding and Forecasting Deep Convective Initiation
临界性:理解和预测深对流起始的理论
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0757189 - 财政年份:2008
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- 资助金额:
$ 26.1万 - 项目类别:
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