Production Costing and Planning for Multi-Area and Distributed Power Systems

霍布斯9521603现有计划工具在考虑传输限制时不计算预期生产成本。此外，目前比较分布式资源与输配(T&A；D)投资和集中资源的框架缺乏适当开发和使用边际成本信息的理论基础。我们建议开展以下研究工作来填补这些空白：*开发和演示评估传输限制对预期成本的影响的方法。这些方法将利用一个多区域概率生产成本计算框架，其中包括直流和交流网络表示。现有的概率多区域方法，除了低效的蒙特卡罗方法外，不包括直流或交流流动模型。这项工作将使公用事业公司能够评估资源和输电决策对生产成本的长期影响，同时严格考虑输电限制和可能的负荷和设备状态的整个范围。它还可以为电力非公用事业提供商、大型电力用户和监管机构提供一种更好地了解大宗电力市场空间成本结构的手段，从而使他们受益。*建立一个在理论上站得住脚但实际可行的框架，利用这些信息评价资源和交易。利用分解方法开发理论上最优的方法来协调发电规划、大电力系统运行和输配电规划的模型。将确定指导方针和程序，以便在理论上正确计算边际成本和协调模型。这一努力对许多电力公司来说将特别有价值，他们正开始评估分散发电和需求侧资源相对于集中式发电和需求侧资源的优点。一些公用事业公司目前正在测试涉及配电网规划方法与批量电力规划和潮流模型协调的特别程序。****

Hobbs 9521603 Existing planning tools do not calculate expected production costs while considering transmission limitations. Further, present frameworks for comparing distributed resources against transmission and distribution (T&D) investments and centralized resources lack a theoretical basis for the appropriate development and use of marginal cost information. We propose the following research efforts to fill those gaps: * Development and demonstration of methods for assessing the effect of transmission limits upon expected costs. The methods would exploit a multiarea probabilistic production costing framework incorporating DC and AC network representations. Existing probabilistic multiarea methods, aside from inefficient Monte Carlo approaches, do not include DC or AC flow models. This work would be of benefit to utilities by allowing them to assess the long run implications of resources and transmission decisions for production costs while rigorously considering transmission limitations and the entire range of possible load and equipment states. It could also benefit non-utility providers of electric power, large power consumers, and regulators by providing them a means of better understanding the spatial cost structure of the bulk power market. * Creation of a theoretically defensible yet practical framework for using such information for evaluating resources and transactions. Decomposition methods would be used to develop theoretically optimal approaches for coordinating models for generation planning, bulk power system operation, and transmission and distribution planning. Guidelines and procedures would be defined for theoretically correct calculation of marginal costs and coordination of models. This effort would be especially valuable to the many electric utilities who are beginning to evaluate the merits of dist ributed versus centralized generation and demand-side resources. Some utilities are presently testing ad hoc procedures involving coordination of distribution planning methods with bulk power planning and power flow models. ****